Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2673 GP	H233 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3195 GP · 3y
TOI	11.87	11.83	11.51	11.75	12.15
PP TOI	0.42	0.47	0.43	0.50	0.12
G	9	5	3	6	12
A	13	10	12	8	13
PTS	22	15	15	14	24
PPP	2	1	2	0	0
SOG	81	72	71	73	86
PIM	13	18	15	20	10
Hits	146	158	132	181	131
Blocks	30	37	32	41	27

Sample: 73 GP · 767 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

202Curtis Lazar-41

203Rodrigo Abols-42

204Samuel Honzek-43

205Jesper Boqvist-43

206Matthew Poitras-43

207Mark Jankowski-44

208Brendan Gaunce-44

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 65% below where it started (8.86 in the first half, 3.06 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 58% above his 3-year rate last season (2.42 against 1.53).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 30% above last season, 10 to 13.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 44% below his 3-year rate last season (0.23 against 0.41).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders81% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken81% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights78% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild76% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jesper Boqvist is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 5
fills: A, PPP, G, SOG
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 5
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year (FLA, traded): Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.87	11.83	12.15	-3%
5v5 TOI	10.86	10.51	11.14	-6%
PP TOI	0.42	0.47	0.12	+305%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 14 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.87: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.86: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.42: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.54	4.54	5.27	-14%
G/60	0.42	0.31	0.69	-55%
iSH%	9.22	6.83	13.12	-48%
ixG/60	–	0.57	0.58	-1%
iCF/60	–	10.01	9.75	+3%
iSCF/60	–	4.07	5.91	-31%
iHDCF/60	–	1.96	2.90	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 14 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.8% vs 13.1% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.57 (44th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 9.2%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 4.54 vs 5.27) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.14	7.61	9.00	-15%
IPP	58.82	54.65	63.92	-15%
1A/60	0.31	0.23	0.41	-44%
2A/60	0.38	0.39	0.41	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 14 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.6%, IPP 54.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.42	0.47	0.12	+305%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	5.29	5.29	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	1.25	0.34	+265%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 14 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.5→0.4 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.00	1.25	0.61	+105%
Hits/60	9.62	10.79	8.26	+31%
Blks/60	2.07	2.42	1.53	+58%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 14 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 8.15/60 and 2nd-half 9.35 below the 10.79 season rate — projected DOWN to 9.62/60, weighting the recent decline over the 8.26 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.78/60 and 2nd-half 2.28 below the 2.42 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.07/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.53 3-yr mark.