Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2674 GP	H233 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3239 GP · 3y
TOI	14.60	14.44	13.53	14.39	15.67
PP TOI	1.62	1.80	1.26	2.23	2.24
G	15	16	8	22	21
A	21	21	14	27	28
PTS	36	37	21	49	49
PPP	9	11	5	16	16
SOG	140	140	143	137	171
PIM	51	22	30	16	78
Hits	57	50	52	48	70
Blocks	21	28	27	28	20

Sample: 74 GP · 902 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

133Claude Giroux-3

134Justin Hryckowian-3

135Eetu Luostarinen-3

136Michael Bunting-4

137Andrei Kuzmenko-6

138Fabian Zetterlund-7

139Alex Killorn-8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 132% above last season, 22 to 51.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 91% below where it started (15.08 in the first half, 1.40 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 5 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 25% below last season, 28 to 21.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth87% match
Jason ZuckerLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres85% match
shared: PIM
Ryan LeonardRW · Washington Capitals85% match
shared: PIM
Quinton ByfieldC,LW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Michael Bunting is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, Hits
Dylan HollowayLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 3
fills: Hits, A, SOG
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year (NSH, traded): Glen Gulutzan DAL · pre-trade → Andrew Brunette NSH · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.60	14.44	15.67	-8%
5v5 TOI	11.91	12.20	13.05	-7%
PP TOI	1.62	1.80	2.24	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.60: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.91: role tapered late (Q4 10.8 vs 12.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.62: role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.98	6.98	7.02	-1%
G/60	0.58	0.53	0.61	-13%
iSH%	8.25	7.59	8.72	-13%
ixG/60	–	0.87	0.91	-4%
iCF/60	–	15.68	13.41	+17%
iSCF/60	–	7.51	8.12	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	3.85	4.42	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.6% sits near the 8.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.87 (84th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.71→0.97 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.90	8.90	8.91	-0%
IPP	59.55	59.35	59.87	-1%
1A/60	0.75	0.80	0.79	+2%
2A/60	0.21	0.13	0.29	-55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.9%, IPP 59.3%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.68 vs 13.41) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.62	1.80	2.24	-20%
PP iSH%	21.93	30.04	21.93	+37%
PP SOG/60	10.53	9.02	12.81	-30%
PP ixG/60	–	1.75	2.58	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.8→1.6 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 1.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (30.0% vs 21.9% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.75) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.80	1.33	3.96	-66%
Hits/60	3.41	2.92	3.73	-22%
Blks/60	1.42	1.66	1.06	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.17/60 and 2nd-half 3.40 vs a 2.92 season rate (3.73 3-yr) (37th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.41/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.66/60 (22nd pct league-wide) → 1.42 projected.