Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	16.17	16.30	15.03	16.00	19.03
PP TOI	2.10	2.18	1.96	2.40	2.71
G	16	14	12	16	24
A	32	35	27	43	41
PTS	48	49	39	59	65
PPP	14	13	10	16	20
SOG	132	139	137	141	179
PIM	16	22	18	27	26
Hits	53	65	66	65	60
Blocks	27	27	26	27	33

Sample: 82 GP · 978 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

130Aliaksei Protas-2

131Parker Kelly-3

132Ryan Donato-3

133Claude Giroux-3

134Justin Hryckowian-3

135Eetu Luostarinen-3

136Michael Bunting-4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 74% below where it started (0.85 in the first half, 0.23 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 63% above where it started (0.47 in the first half, 0.77 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 39% above his 3-year rate last season (3.92 against 2.82).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Pavel ZachaC,LW · Boston Bruins93% match
shared: A
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks85% match
Pavel BuchnevichC,LW,RW · St. Louis Blues84% match
shared: A
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Claude Giroux is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.17	16.30	19.03	-14%
5v5 TOI	11.63	11.94	13.47	-11%
PP TOI	2.10	2.18	2.71	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.17: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.63: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.10: role tapered late (Q4 2.0 vs 2.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.06	6.25	6.69	-7%
G/60	0.61	0.55	0.80	-31%
iSH%	10.01	8.80	11.97	-26%
ixG/60	–	0.62	0.62	+0%
iCF/60	–	11.16	11.51	-3%
iSCF/60	–	6.50	6.33	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	2.94	3.02	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 8.8% vs 12.0% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.62 (50th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.0%, lifting the goal rate ~10%.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.47→0.77 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 38 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.11	10.78	8.00	+35%
IPP	61.15	56.21	69.21	-19%
1A/60	0.57	0.55	0.64	-14%
2A/60	0.49	0.61	0.40	+53%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.8% vs a 8.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.61 vs 3-yr 0.40) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.10	2.18	2.71	-20%
PP iSH%	13.30	4.05	15.91	-75%
PP SOG/60	8.29	8.40	7.94	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	0.97	1.06	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (4.0% vs 15.9%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.88	1.23	1.06	+16%
Hits/60	3.30	3.92	2.82	+39%
Blks/60	1.27	1.23	1.33	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.92/60 (48th pct league-wide) → 3.30 projected.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (8th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.