Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2652 GP	H217 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3219 GP · 3y
TOI	15.04	14.92	15.29	14.13	15.61
PP TOI	2.88	2.99	2.80	3.09	2.98
G	23	21	24	19	27
A	26	19	26	16	32
PTS	49	40	50	35	59
PPP	18	21	24	19	19
SOG	119	109	114	106	130
PIM	16	25	29	23	13
Hits	19	28	0	42	17
Blocks	21	22	19	23	20

Sample: 52 GP · 598 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

134Justin Hryckowian-3

135Eetu Luostarinen-3

136Michael Bunting-4

137Andrei Kuzmenko-6

138Fabian Zetterlund-7

139Alex Killorn-8

140Nick Foligno-8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 67% below his 3-year rate last season (0.20 against 0.61).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 24 pace in the second half after 19 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 36% below last season, 25 to 16.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres83% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks81% match
Luke EvangelistaRW · Nashville Predators80% match
Pavel ZachaC,LW · Boston Bruins80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Andrei Kuzmenko is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Dan Muse (PIT)

Last year (LAK, traded): Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.04	14.92	15.61	-4%
5v5 TOI	11.98	11.52	12.17	-5%
PP TOI	2.88	2.99	2.98	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 17 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.04: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.98: same coach (Dan Muse) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 12.5, Q4 12.5) over the full-year 11.5
PP TOI → 2.88: established top role held near 3.0 — the late dip (Q4 2.8) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; Cap points near 40; avoid new-home hype.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.31	4.31	5.16	-16%
G/60	0.67	0.50	0.95	-47%
iSH%	15.51	11.60	18.35	-37%
ixG/60	–	0.61	0.67	-9%
iCF/60	–	13.02	11.42	+14%
iSCF/60	–	8.42	7.54	+12%
iHDCF/60	–	3.61	3.74	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 17 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.6% sits near the 18.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.61 (48th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 4.31 vs 5.16) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.86	7.71	11.07	-30%
IPP	58.47	52.38	70.18	-25%
1A/60	0.35	0.20	0.61	-67%
2A/60	0.54	0.40	0.67	-41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 17 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 52.4% sits below the 70.2% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.02 vs 11.42) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.88	2.99	2.98	+1%
PP iSH%	26.56	33.37	26.56	+26%
PP SOG/60	9.20	9.26	9.02	+3%
PP ixG/60	–	1.52	1.97	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 17 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskCap points near 40; avoid new-home hype.

ContextPP role steady at ~2.9 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (33.4% vs 26.6% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.52) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.19	1.40	0.63	+123%
Hits/60	1.26	1.80	0.99	+82%
Blks/60	1.28	1.40	1.17	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 17 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.00 below the 1.80 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.26/60, weighting the recent decline over the 0.99 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.13/60 and 2nd-half 1.13 below the 1.40 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.28/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.17 3-yr mark.