Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2649 GP	H226 GP	H123 GP	Prev 377 GP · 1y
TOI	10.24	9.12	8.50	9.63	14.97
PP TOI	0.17	0.12	0.07	0.17	1.54
G	▲7	3	3	4	11
A	▲16	3	6	-0	27
PTS	▲23	7	9	3	37
PPP	0	0	0	0	3
SOG	82	70	79	61	124
PIM	23	10	13	7	42
Hits	120	139	131	148	148
Blocks	25	13	13	14	43

Sample: 49 GP · 435 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

248Liam Ohgren-47

249Reilly Smith-47

250Boris Katchouk-47

251Maxim Tsyplakov-48

252Eric Robinson-48

253John Beecher-48

254Isaac Howard-49

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): HEDGED DOWN 2026-07-27 (CGY pass). We had him at 28, which rested on applying a x1.35 boost toward his Islanders rookie pace (~37 per-82) — but that pace came from top-nine minutes, and the engine gives him 10.24 TOI in Calgary. We were applying a rookie-year RATE to a fourth-liner's ICE TIME. The outside read has him 4th line at ~14 per-84 over 65 GP, and the other source does not project him at all. Cut to x1.12, lands ~22-23: still above the outside 14 (which under-rates ~148 hits/82 and a real rookie season) but well off our 28. Also fixed a stale 'team': 'New York Islanders' field that survived the trade to Calgary.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 finished the year 136% above where it started (1.97 in the first half, 4.64 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 58% above where it started (0.52 in the first half, 0.81 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 61% below his 3-year rate last season (0.28 against 0.71).

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 51% below his 3-year rate last season (1.10 against 2.25).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild82% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights80% match
shared: Hits
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers79% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Maxim Tsyplakov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Huska (CGY)

Last year (NYI, traded): Sheldon Keefe NJD · pre-trade → Peter DeBoer NYI · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.24	9.12	14.97	-39%
5v5 TOI	9.64	8.89	13.14	-32%
PP TOI	0.17	0.12	1.54	-92%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 10 · 14 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.24: reverts toward the 3-yr 15.0
5v5 TOI → 9.64: reverts toward the 3-yr 13.1
PP TOI → 0.17: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.87	5.79	6.11	-5%
G/60	0.38	0.28	0.47	-40%
iSH%	6.49	4.84	7.69	-37%
ixG/60	–	0.66	0.83	-20%
iCF/60	–	12.40	14.11	-12%
iSCF/60	–	5.79	7.41	-22%
iHDCF/60	–	3.31	3.56	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 10 · 14 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.8% sits near the 7.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.66 (57th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.52→0.81 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.75	5.26	9.19	-43%
IPP	54.29	44.35	70.50	-37%
1A/60	0.46	0.28	0.71	-61%
2A/60	0.42	0.00	0.65	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 10 · 14 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 44.4% sits below the 70.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.17	0.12	1.54	-92%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	9.90
PP SOG/60	1.01	0.00	5.05	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	1.12	1.59	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 10 · 14 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.12	0.83	1.84	-55%
Hits/60	10.03	11.30	8.12	+39%
Blks/60	1.49	1.10	2.25	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 10 · 14 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (88th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (10.03/60 projected).

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (5th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.