Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2667 GP	H232 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3201 GP · 3y
TOI	11.68	11.43	10.73	11.80	12.65
PP TOI	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.07	0.03
G	12	15	6	22	12
A	11	7	6	8	15
PTS	23	22	13	30	27
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	101	103	92	113	110
PIM	14	10	15	5	14
Hits	118	110	105	115	139
Blocks	17	16	19	13	23

Sample: 67 GP · 682 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

249Reilly Smith-47

250Boris Katchouk-47

251Maxim Tsyplakov-48

252Eric Robinson-48

253John Beecher-48

254Isaac Howard-49

255Conor Sheary-49

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 73% below where it started (21.30 in the first half, 5.86 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 42% below his 3-year rate last season (0.35 against 0.61).

Bottom of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (1.05).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken77% match
shared: Hits
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres75% match
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights74% match
shared: Hits
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders73% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Eric Robinson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.68	11.43	12.65	-10%
5v5 TOI	10.22	10.19	11.27	-10%
PP TOI	0.03	0.05	0.03	+82%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 15 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.68: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.22: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.03: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.77	6.77	6.70	+1%
G/60	0.86	0.97	0.66	+46%
iSH%	12.65	14.33	9.91	+45%
ixG/60	–	0.96	0.88	+9%
iCF/60	–	15.02	13.37	+12%
iSCF/60	–	9.49	8.39	+13%
iHDCF/60	–	5.10	4.66	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 15 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.96 (92nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.88 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.12	8.05	8.23	-2%
IPP	62.60	59.49	68.06	-13%
1A/60	0.51	0.35	0.61	-42%
2A/60	0.22	0.09	0.32	-72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 15 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.1%, IPP 59.5%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.02 vs 13.37) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.03	0.05	0.03	+82%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	19.70	18.56	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	4.40	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 15 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.94	0.70	0.87	-20%
Hits/60	8.20	7.73	8.90	-13%
Blks/60	1.10	1.05	1.14	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 21 · 15 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.73/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 8.20 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 0.72/60 and 2nd-half 1.42 vs a 1.05 season rate (1.14 3-yr) (4th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.10/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.