Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2669 GP	H233 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3233 GP · 3y
TOI	13.72	13.68	13.61	13.20	16.18
PP TOI	0.49	0.42	0.22	0.60	1.57
G	16	19	25	14	18
A	18	12	13	11	30
PTS	34	31	37	25	48
PPP	2	1	0	2	8
SOG	129	113	136	92	162
PIM	7	5	5	4	20
Hits	29	30	27	32	61
Blocks	17	16	11	19	33

Sample: 69 GP · 832 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

246James van Riemsdyk-46

247Gustav Nyquist-46

248Liam Ohgren-47

249Reilly Smith-47

250Boris Katchouk-47

251Maxim Tsyplakov-48

252Eric Robinson-48

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 127% above where it started (0.39 in the first half, 0.89 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 73% below his 3-year rate last season (0.42 against 1.57).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 50% above last season, 12 to 18.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres87% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets83% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks81% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Reilly Smith is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 1
fills: PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 1
fills: PIM
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 1
fills: PIM
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 1
fills: PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.72	13.68	16.18	-15%
5v5 TOI	11.98	12.06	12.74	-5%
PP TOI	0.49	0.42	1.57	-73%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 10

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.72: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.98: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.49: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.41	5.84	6.71	-13%
G/60	0.70	0.79	0.61	+30%
iSH%	10.93	13.53	9.05	+49%
ixG/60	–	0.60	0.72	-17%
iCF/60	–	10.16	11.78	-14%
iSCF/60	–	6.20	7.09	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	2.38	3.56	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 10

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 13.5% vs a 9.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.60 (47th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 10.9% pulls the goal rate ~11% down.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 5.84 vs 6.71) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.39→0.89 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.08	7.65	8.60	-11%
IPP	70.64	72.25	68.66	+5%
1A/60	0.56	0.43	0.77	-44%
2A/60	0.38	0.29	0.45	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 10

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.7%, IPP 72.2%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.49	0.42	1.57	-73%
PP iSH%	12.14	16.69	10.86	+54%
PP SOG/60	13.23	12.46	13.58	-8%
PP ixG/60	–	1.63	1.86	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 10

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (16.7% vs 10.9% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.63) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.39	0.29	1.09	-73%
Hits/60	1.59	1.66	2.93	-43%
Blks/60	0.92	0.87	1.64	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 16 · 23 · 10

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.51/60 and 2nd-half 1.18 below the 1.66 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.59/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.93 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.51/60 and 2nd-half 0.56 below the 0.87 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.92/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.64 3-yr mark.