Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2651 GP	H221 GP	H130 GP	Prev 3211 GP · 3y
TOI	12.85	12.68	12.40	12.28	17.38
PP TOI	1.78	1.78	1.66	1.86	2.19
G	10	2	4	-0	17
A	20	18	12	22	33
PTS	30	19	16	22	51
PPP	8	8	0	14	11
SOG	98	100	85	110	139
PIM	13	16	23	11	16
Hits	36	45	39	49	47
Blocks	26	30	20	38	37

Sample: 51 GP · 512 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

244Marat Khusnutdinov-44

245Jansen Harkins-45

246James van Riemsdyk-46

247Gustav Nyquist-46

248Liam Ohgren-47

249Reilly Smith-47

250Boris Katchouk-47

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 75% below his 3-year rate last season (2.18 against 8.76).

Second-half fade

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 72% below where it started (1.64 in the first half, 0.45 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 66% below his 3-year rate last season (0.23 against 0.68).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 12 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets88% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks86% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks81% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Gustav Nyquist is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.85	12.68	17.38	-27%
5v5 TOI	10.10	10.05	13.03	-23%
PP TOI	1.78	1.78	2.19	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 16 · 11 · 10

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.85: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.10: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.78: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.28	5.50	5.48	+0%
G/60	0.16	0.12	0.48	-75%
iSH%	4.68	2.18	8.76	-75%
ixG/60	–	0.64	0.59	+8%
iCF/60	–	9.71	10.39	-7%
iSCF/60	–	6.20	5.85	+6%
iHDCF/60	–	2.57	2.75	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 16 · 11 · 10

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 2.2% vs 8.8% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.64 (54th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 4.7%, lifting the goal rate ~30%.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.22	5.25	7.81	-33%
IPP	65.07	63.57	66.90	-5%
1A/60	0.36	0.23	0.68	-66%
2A/60	0.43	0.47	0.43	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 16 · 11 · 10

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 5.2%, IPP 63.6%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.78	1.78	2.19	-19%
PP iSH%	9.02	0.00	15.55	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.56	8.60	5.85	+47%
PP ixG/60	–	1.13	1.12	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 16 · 11 · 10

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.8 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 15.5%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.06	1.17	0.66	+78%
Hits/60	2.63	3.16	2.32	+36%
Blks/60	1.76	2.22	1.86	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 16 · 11 · 10

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.52/60 and 2nd-half 2.51 below the 3.16 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.63/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.32 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.63/60 and 2nd-half 1.31 below the 2.22 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.76/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.86 3-yr mark.