Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H238 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3203 GP · 3y
TOI	11.68	11.75	11.12	11.70	13.67
PP TOI	1.80	1.84	2.04	1.62	1.84
G	13	17	11	24	16
A	19	18	30	5	26
PTS	32	35	41	29	42
PPP	9	13	13	12	7
SOG	97	113	88	141	139
PIM	15	16	9	24	29
Hits	22	17	17	17	34
Blocks	21	32	17	48	22

Sample: 72 GP · 687 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

243Colin Blackwell-44

244Marat Khusnutdinov-44

245Jansen Harkins-45

246James van Riemsdyk-46

247Gustav Nyquist-46

248Liam Ohgren-47

249Reilly Smith-47

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 17 pace in the second half after 48 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 75% above his 3-year rate last season (4.19 against 2.40).

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 31% below last season, 13 to 9.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres86% match
Luke EvangelistaRW · Nashville Predators81% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth81% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where James van Riemsdyk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.68	11.75	13.67	-14%
5v5 TOI	9.27	9.55	11.54	-17%
PP TOI	1.80	1.84	1.84	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 21 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.68: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.27: role tapered late (Q4 8.6 vs 9.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.80: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.81	5.67	6.81	-17%
G/60	0.51	0.70	0.64	+10%
iSH%	10.62	12.35	9.37	+32%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.84	-4%
iCF/60	–	12.30	11.47	+7%
iSCF/60	–	7.94	7.32	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	5.15	4.58	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 21 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 12.3% vs a 9.4% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 10.6% pulls the goal rate ~27% down.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 5.67 vs 6.81) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.03 (1st half) to 0.56 (2nd).

RiskAge 37 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.40	7.84	9.52	-18%
IPP	78.68	86.57	71.56	+21%
1A/60	0.59	0.44	0.77	-43%
2A/60	0.62	0.61	0.59	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 21 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 86.6% vs 71.6% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.15 vs 4.58) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.80	1.84	1.84	+0%
PP iSH%	18.56	24.10	14.54	+66%
PP SOG/60	11.60	13.11	9.96	+32%
PP ixG/60	–	4.19	2.40	+75%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 21 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.8 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 4.19 vs 2.40) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.98	1.05	1.46	-28%
Hits/60	1.51	1.13	2.02	-44%
Blks/60	1.74	2.44	1.38	+76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 18 · 21 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.06/60 and 2nd-half 1.48 vs a 1.13 season rate (2.02 3-yr) (10th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.51/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.23/60 and 2nd-half 1.37 below the 2.44 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.74/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.38 3-yr mark.