Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H233 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3160 GP · 3y
TOI	11.83	11.89	12.03	11.59	12.45
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.09
G	6	5	5	5	8
A	12	13	14	12	12
PTS	18	18	19	17	20
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	78	72	78	66	105
PIM	39	47	64	31	16
Hits	112	131	143	121	91
Blocks	37	43	51	37	30

Sample: 70 GP · 680 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

240Isak Rosen-43

241Samuel Honzek-43

242Mark Jankowski-44

243Colin Blackwell-44

244Marat Khusnutdinov-44

245Jansen Harkins-45

246James van Riemsdyk-46

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 64 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 48% above where it started (0.47 in the first half, 0.70 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (9.61 against 6.20).

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild86% match
shared: Hits
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs85% match
shared: Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: Hits
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues83% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Colin Blackwell is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.83	11.89	12.45	-4%
5v5 TOI	9.87	9.72	10.46	-7%
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.09	-91%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 15 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.83: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.87: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.01: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.79	4.94	6.24	-21%
G/60	0.33	0.35	0.39	-11%
iSH%	6.79	7.09	6.31	+12%
ixG/60	–	0.58	0.59	-2%
iCF/60	–	11.90	12.45	-4%
iSCF/60	–	5.64	5.70	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	2.73	2.54	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 15 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.1% sits near the 6.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.58 (45th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 4.94 vs 6.24) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.47→0.70 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.42	9.74	6.89	+41%
IPP	63.86	63.40	64.72	-2%
1A/60	0.57	0.62	0.54	+16%
2A/60	0.27	0.26	0.18	+46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 15 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.7% vs a 6.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.09	-91%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	49.98
PP SOG/60	2.08	0.00	8.30	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.84	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 15 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.30	3.17	0.86	+267%
Hits/60	8.12	9.61	6.20	+55%
Blks/60	2.46	2.64	1.76	+50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 16 · 15 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 12.05/60 and 2nd-half 9.90 vs a 9.61 season rate (6.20 3-yr) (84th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 8.12/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.17/60 and 2nd-half 3.09 vs a 2.64 season rate (1.76 3-yr) (53rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.46/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.17/60 (84th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.