Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2629 GP	H211 GP	H118 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	10.74	10.31	11.47	9.47	–
PP TOI	0.52	0.49	0.54	0.51	–
G	▲11	6	0	10	–
A	▲13	8	16	5	–
PTS	▲24	14	16	14	–
PPP	▲4	0	0	0	–
SOG	▲116	102	115	92	–
PIM	▲32	34	16	48	–
Hits	22	20	33	14	–
Blocks	▲18	14	25	5	–

Sample: 29 GP · 283 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

251Maxim Tsyplakov-48

252Eric Robinson-48

253John Beecher-48

254Isaac Howard-49

255Conor Sheary-49

256Ville Koivunen-50

257Alex Turcotte-50

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (Marchessault) blended with 2025-26 NHL (29 GP, 14 pts) at w=0.50. Supersedes the prior curated adjust bet (G x1.45 / A x1.55, target ~24-26); this absolute set lands 24 pts, same intent, held below Fantrax's 36. Per-82; tune here.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 48 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 41% above where it started (0.39 in the first half, 0.55 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

Blks/60

Blks/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (1.06).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres80% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth77% match
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes74% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres74% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Isaac Howard is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, Hits
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangerscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	10.74	10.31	n/a
5v5 TOI	10.38	9.77	n/a
PP TOI	0.52	0.49	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 1 · 10 · 1

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.74: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 10.38: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 10.9 role discounted until the new staff sets usage; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.52: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.5 role discounted until the new staff sets usage; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	7.85	7.62	n/a
G/60	0.43	0.42	n/a
iSH%	5.51	5.51	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.86	n/a
iCF/60	–	15.04	n/a
iSCF/60	–	7.62	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.39	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 1 · 10 · 1

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextProject Howard as a boom/bust EDM depth scorer for 2026-27; the upside case is top-nine minutes with McDavid/Draisaitl-tier centers.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.73→0.93 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +6% and role +4% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	6.82	6.82	n/a
IPP	62.72	62.72	n/a
1A/60	0.42	0.42	n/a
2A/60	0.21	0.21	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 1 · 10 · 1

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextProject Howard as a boom/bust EDM depth scorer for 2026-27; the upside case is top-nine minutes with McDavid/Draisaitl-tier centers.

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.8%, IPP 62.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.52	0.49	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.78	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 1 · 10 · 1

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.5 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.72	2.12	n/a
Hits/60	1.62	1.48	n/a
Blks/60	1.17	1.06	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 1 · 10 · 1

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.20/60 and 2nd-half 2.20 vs a 1.48 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (16th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.62/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.65/60 and 2nd-half 1.65 vs a 1.06 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (4th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.17/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.