Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2644 GP	H215 GP	H129 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	13.68	13.68	12.75	13.52	–
PP TOI	1.85	1.63	1.17	1.92	–
G	9	9	-0	11	–
A	23	24	15	28	–
PTS	32	34	15	40	–
PPP	8	9	0	14	–
SOG	110	106	95	110	–
PIM	4	4	0	6	–
Hits	48	50	37	54	–
Blocks	31	30	37	23	–

Sample: 44 GP · 504 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

227Cody Glass-41

228Nils Hoglander-41

229David Tomasek-41

230Max Shabanov-41

231Joshua Roy-41

232Curtis Lazar-41

233Lenni Hameenaho-43

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): The 2nd unit power play role both depth charts give him is worth a small minutes bump. It stops there on purpose: he scored 0 power play goals in 44 games and shoots less than almost anyone in the lineup, so the 2 quarters that flatter him are 9 and 4 games long.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 40 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres85% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks82% match
Pavel ZachaC,LW · Boston Bruins79% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Max Shabanov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Ryan HartmanC,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year (NYI, traded): Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	13.68	13.68	n/a
5v5 TOI	11.49	11.46	n/a
PP TOI	1.85	1.63	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 20 · 11 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.68: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 11.49: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 1.85: both charts have him on a PP unit, but 0 PP goals in 44 games caps how far this can go

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.61	5.71	n/a
G/60	0.59	0.60	n/a
iSH%	10.51	10.51	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.58	n/a
iCF/60	–	10.48	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.95	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	1.90	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 20 · 11 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.67 (1st half) to 0.41 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	11.12	11.12	n/a
IPP	54.20	54.20	n/a
1A/60	0.71	0.71	n/a
2A/60	0.24	0.24	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 20 · 11 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.1%, IPP 54.2%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.85	1.63	n/a
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	5.55	5.03	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.92	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 20 · 11 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.6→1.9 PP TOI/gp (both charts have him on a PP unit, but 0 PP goals in 44 games caps how far this can go) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
Hits/60	3.04	3.21	n/a
Blks/60	1.98	1.90	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 20 · 11 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.36/60 and 2nd-half 2.36 below the 3.21 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.04/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.36/60 and 2nd-half 2.36 vs a 1.90 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (29th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.98/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.