Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2670 GP	H240 GP	H130 GP	Prev 3178 GP · 3y
TOI	13.67	13.61	12.73	13.89	14.05
PP TOI	0.52	0.40	0.30	0.53	1.67
G	▼9	22	25	19	12
A	14	8	11	4	20
PTS	▼23	31	36	23	32
PPP	2	2	2	3	6
SOG	123	123	113	136	140
PIM	▼21	46	39	54	26
Hits	55	49	46	53	67
Blocks	44	47	54	37	40

Sample: 70 GP · 848 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

194Frederic Gaudreau-39

195Alexander Kerfoot-40

196Jesperi Kotkaniemi-40

197Cody Glass-41

198Kevin Stenlund-41

199Jack Finley-41

200Berkly Catton-41

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Depth-only in non-faceoff formats; 2025-26 rode shooting luck and a PIM outlier.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (18.70 against 7.10).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 76% below his 3-year rate last season (0.40 against 1.67).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 59% below last season, 22 to 9.

Second-half surge

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets87% match
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames84% match
shared: Blocks
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues82% match
shared: Blocks
Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Cody Glass is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.67	13.61	14.05	-3%
5v5 TOI	11.82	12.12	11.35	+7%
PP TOI	0.52	0.40	1.67	-76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 20 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.67: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.82: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.52: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.79	6.79	6.74	+1%
G/60	0.97	1.27	0.48	+165%
iSH%	14.29	18.70	7.10	+163%
ixG/60	–	0.84	0.71	+18%
iCF/60	–	11.24	12.69	-11%
iSCF/60	–	7.85	7.60	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	3.89	3.27	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 20 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress G/PTS and PIM toward career norms; depth-only in non-FOW formats. · Fantasy hockey forward analysis

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.84 (80th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.71 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.93	10.09	7.70	+31%
IPP	61.34	60.59	62.64	-3%
1A/60	0.40	0.21	0.57	-63%
2A/60	0.22	0.14	0.36	-61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 20 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.1% vs a 7.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.89 vs 3.27) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.52	0.40	1.67	-76%
PP iSH%	13.64	20.00	11.85	+69%
PP SOG/60	12.19	10.80	11.89	-9%
PP ixG/60	–	2.29	2.34	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 20 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (20.0% vs 11.9% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.29) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.12	2.62	1.43	+84%
Hits/60	3.24	2.83	4.16	-32%
Blks/60	2.38	2.40	2.34	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 20 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress G/PTS and PIM toward career norms; depth-only in non-FOW formats. · Fantasy hockey forward analysis

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.98/60 and 2nd-half 2.62 below the 2.83 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.24/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.16 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.40/60 (46th pct league-wide) → 2.38 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.