Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2634 GP	H228 GP	H16 GP	Prev 3163 GP · 2y
TOI	13.42	12.79	12.75	10.83	14.93
PP TOI	0.44	0.39	0.44	0.17	0.50
G	10	17	17	16	11
A	17	15	17	2	20
PTS	27	31	34	19	30
PPP	1	0	0	0	2
SOG	94	67	51	144	118
PIM	26	55	53	64	22
Hits	56	72	79	43	57
Blocks	53	65	65	64	54

Sample: 34 GP · 357 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

192Adam Gaudette-39

193Sam Steel-39

194Frederic Gaudreau-39

195Alexander Kerfoot-40

196Jesperi Kotkaniemi-40

197Cody Glass-41

198Kevin Stenlund-41

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (11.08 in the first half, 33.37 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 79 pace in the second half after 43 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (3.19 against 1.24).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 41% below last season, 17 to 10.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings82% match
shared: Blocks
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks82% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames81% match
shared: Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alexander Kerfoot is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year (UTA, traded): André Tourigny full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.42	12.79	14.93	-14%
5v5 TOI	10.97	10.50	11.90	-12%
PP TOI	0.44	0.39	0.50	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 6 · 9 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.42: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.97: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.44: same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.6) over the full-year 0.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.59	4.03	6.18	-35%
G/60	0.73	1.01	0.46	+117%
iSH%	14.89	25.06	7.52	+233%
ixG/60	–	0.38	0.74	-49%
iCF/60	–	9.41	10.70	-12%
iSCF/60	–	4.87	6.62	-26%
iHDCF/60	–	1.85	3.56	-48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 6 · 9 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 25.1% vs a 7.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.38 (35th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 14.9% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 35% (5v5 SOG/60 4.03 vs 6.18) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.66 (1st half) to 0.31 (2nd).

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.25	11.85	7.51	+58%
IPP	71.12	78.72	66.04	+19%
1A/60	0.55	0.50	0.62	-19%
2A/60	0.31	0.34	0.37	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 6 · 9 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.9% (3-yr 7.5%) AND IPP 78.7% (3-yr 66.0%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~16%.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.44	0.39	0.50	-21%
PP iSH%	12.87	0.00	22.19	-100%
PP SOG/60	4.17	4.47	6.59	-32%
PP ixG/60	–	1.09	0.86	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 6 · 9 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.4→0.4 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.6) over the full-year 0.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 22.2%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.13	3.19	1.24	+158%
Hits/60	3.91	4.87	3.22	+51%
Blks/60	3.25	3.86	2.53	+52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 6 · 9 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.87/60 (58th pct league-wide) → 3.91 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.86/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 3.25 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.17/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.