Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2642 GP	H217 GP	H125 GP	Prev 3239 GP · 3y
TOI	11.90	11.35	11.61	11.00	13.93
PP TOI	0.43	0.29	0.22	0.35	1.45
G	11	4	0	7	14
A	▼15	14	14	13	21
PTS	▼26	18	14	20	35
PPP	1	0	0	0	5
SOG	97	82	70	91	128
PIM	34	16	0	26	47
Hits	81	123	113	130	78
Blocks	26	35	23	43	28

Sample: 42 GP · 453 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

193Sam Steel-39

194Frederic Gaudreau-39

195Alexander Kerfoot-40

196Jesperi Kotkaniemi-40

197Cody Glass-41

198Kevin Stenlund-41

199Jack Finley-41

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Faded 29 -> 26. His job was taken by the fourth-line center who then signed an extension; he was mostly scratched down the stretch (5 GP in Q4) and is a trade/buyout candidate. Outside read has him at 23.5 per-84. Deliberately built as a DEPLOYMENT bet rather than a goal multiplier: this is a minutes story, and a manual G cut pushed him below his ixG floor (the audit's double-fade flag). Landed at 26 rather than the ~24 first targeted because his GOAL FLOOR IS NOW BINDING - chance quality supports ~11 even on cut minutes, and pushing under that would be fighting the process guard. 26 is a hedge between the engine's 29 and the outside 23; take the rest of the fade only if the role news gets worse in camp.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 80% below his 3-year rate last season (0.29 against 1.45).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 79% above his 3-year rate last season (8.19 against 4.57).

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 43 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 42% below where it started (0.72 in the first half, 0.42 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs85% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild83% match
shared: Hits
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres82% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken82% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jesperi Kotkaniemi is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.90	11.35	13.93	-19%
5v5 TOI	10.32	10.81	12.11	-11%
PP TOI	0.43	0.29	1.45	-80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 12 · 5

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.90: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.32: display coherence with the ev cut.
PP TOI → 0.43: same coach (Rod Brind'Amour) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.3, Q4 0.6) over the full-year 0.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.12	5.29	6.37	-17%
G/60	0.34	0.26	0.68	-62%
iSH%	8.30	4.91	10.75	-54%
ixG/60	–	0.62	0.78	-20%
iCF/60	–	10.05	12.20	-18%
iSCF/60	–	6.08	7.13	-15%
iHDCF/60	–	3.30	3.57	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 12 · 5

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.9% sits near the 10.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.62 (50th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 5.29 vs 6.37) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.72 (1st half) to 0.42 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.35	10.57	8.28	+28%
IPP	51.55	45.08	64.23	-30%
1A/60	0.53	0.53	0.48	+11%
2A/60	0.52	0.40	0.56	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 12 · 5

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.6% vs a 8.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.43	0.29	1.45	-80%
PP iSH%	5.58	0.00	7.15	-100%
PP SOG/60	4.86	4.85	9.66	-50%
PP ixG/60	–	0.19	1.49	-87%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 12 · 5

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.3→0.4 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rod Brind'Amour) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.3, Q4 0.6) over the full-year 0.3) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.07	0.79	2.70	-71%
Hits/60	6.56	8.19	4.57	+79%
Blks/60	1.93	2.11	1.66	+27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 10 · 12 · 5

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.53/60 and 2nd-half 6.59 below the 8.19 season rate — projected DOWN to 6.56/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.57 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.11/60 (36th pct league-wide) → 1.93 projected.