Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2665 GP	H232 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3194 GP · 3y
TOI	13.82	13.52	13.20	13.19	15.60
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.09	0.08	0.16
G	9	8	4	11	12
A	13	10	4	16	19
PTS	22	18	8	28	31
PPP	0	0	0	0	2
SOG	101	79	70	88	127
PIM	41	55	64	47	24
Hits	116	112	119	106	97
Blocks	32	37	37	36	33

Sample: 65 GP · 771 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

204Ryan Winterton-32

205Steven Lorentz-32

206Andre Burakovsky-32

207Mason Appleton-33

208Anthony Duclair-33

209Jared Wright-33

210Brett Berard-34

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 8 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 132% above his 3-year rate last season (2.64 against 1.14).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 36% above his 3-year rate last season (6.69 against 4.92).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs88% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild86% match
shared: Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: Hits
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues83% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mason Appleton is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.82	13.52	15.60	-13%
5v5 TOI	12.04	11.87	13.59	-13%
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.16	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 21 · 11

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.82: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.04: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.09: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.51	4.51	6.17	-27%
G/60	0.37	0.39	0.48	-18%
iSH%	8.13	8.65	7.76	+11%
ixG/60	–	0.44	0.57	-23%
iCF/60	–	8.32	11.22	-26%
iSCF/60	–	4.59	5.51	-17%
iHDCF/60	–	2.18	2.48	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 21 · 11

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.6% sits near the 7.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.44 (36th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 27% (5v5 SOG/60 4.51 vs 6.17) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.19	7.06	7.36	-4%
IPP	58.56	57.06	60.39	-6%
1A/60	0.41	0.39	0.46	-14%
2A/60	0.27	0.16	0.39	-59%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 21 · 11

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.1%, IPP 57.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.09	0.08	0.16	-47%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	50.02
PP SOG/60	2.94	0.00	11.77	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.60	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 21 · 11

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.11	2.64	1.14	+132%
Hits/60	6.98	6.69	4.92	+36%
Blks/60	1.44	1.56	1.25	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 12 · 21 · 11

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.88/60 and 2nd-half 7.79 vs a 6.69 season rate (4.92 3-yr) (73rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.98/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.56/60 (18th pct league-wide) → 1.44 projected.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.64/60 (77th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.