Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2662 GP	H223 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3137 GP · 3y
TOI	13.54	13.21	13.26	12.64	15.40
PP TOI	1.30	1.26	1.44	1.16	1.66
G	15	16	29	8	20
A	16	20	21	19	17
PTS	31	36	50	27	37
PPP	8	8	14	4	9
SOG	111	98	96	99	139
PIM	18	16	14	17	28
Hits	22	12	21	6	57
Blocks	46	56	66	50	38

Sample: 62 GP · 718 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

207Gage Goncalves-32

208Steven Lorentz-32

209Andre Burakovsky-32

210Anthony Duclair-33

211Oliver Moore-33

212Jani Nyman-33

213Elmer Soderblom-34

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 29 pace in the second half after 8 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 112% above where it started (7.89 in the first half, 16.70 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 76% below his 3-year rate last season (0.75 against 3.11).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 24% below his 3-year rate last season (1.26 against 1.66).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken86% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets85% match
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: Blocks
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Anthony Duclair is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.54	13.21	15.40	-14%
5v5 TOI	11.67	11.59	13.12	-12%
PP TOI	1.30	1.26	1.66	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 17 · 6

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.54: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.67: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.30: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.76	4.76	6.08	-22%
G/60	0.64	0.67	0.80	-16%
iSH%	13.54	14.08	13.14	+7%
ixG/60	–	0.48	0.73	-34%
iCF/60	–	10.44	11.48	-9%
iSCF/60	–	5.51	6.84	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	2.00	3.91	-49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 17 · 6

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 14.1% sits near the 13.1% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.48 (37th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 22% (5v5 SOG/60 4.76 vs 6.08) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.39	9.63	8.91	+8%
IPP	68.17	74.79	59.88	+25%
1A/60	0.59	0.67	0.53	+26%
2A/60	0.22	0.42	0.20	+108%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 17 · 6

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 74.8% vs 59.9% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.30	1.26	1.66	-24%
PP iSH%	22.11	23.52	21.09	+12%
PP SOG/60	12.08	13.01	10.00	+30%
PP ixG/60	–	2.77	1.82	+52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 17 · 6

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.77 vs 1.82) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.57	0.67	1.07	-37%
Hits/60	1.01	0.75	3.11	-76%
Blks/60	3.90	3.34	2.07	+61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 17 · 6

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.67/60 and 2nd-half 2.12 vs a 0.75 season rate (3.11 3-yr) (4th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.01/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 6.43/60 and 2nd-half 4.81 vs a 3.34 season rate (2.07 3-yr) (69th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.90/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.