Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2659 GP	H234 GP	H125 GP	Prev 347 GP · 2y
TOI	11.38	11.11	11.32	10.54	12.79
PP TOI	0.28	0.19	0.24	0.12	0.70
G	13	10	12	7	16
A	14	8	12	3	17
PTS	27	18	24	10	33
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	103	96	104	85	119
PIM	22	32	36	26	24
Hits	121	138	146	126	112
Blocks	32	25	28	21	38

Sample: 59 GP · 632 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

210Anthony Duclair-33

211Oliver Moore-33

212Jani Nyman-33

213Elmer Soderblom-34

214Otto Stenberg-34

215Brett Berard-34

216Nikita Grebenkin-34

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 103% above his 3-year rate last season (2.18 against 1.07).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 30% above last season, 10 to 13.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 28% above last season, 25 to 32.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 32% above where it started (7.92 in the first half, 10.44 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild84% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken81% match
shared: Hits
Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks79% match
shared: Hits
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers78% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Elmer Soderblom is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Dan Muse (PIT)

Last year (PIT, traded): Todd McLellan DET · pre-trade → Dan Muse PIT · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.38	11.11	12.79	-13%
5v5 TOI	11.08	10.73	11.87	-10%
PP TOI	0.28	0.19	0.70	-73%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 14 · 15 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.38: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.08: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.28: same coach (Dan Muse) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.54	6.54	6.88	-5%
G/60	0.81	0.66	0.96	-32%
iSH%	12.36	10.09	14.00	-28%
ixG/60	–	0.82	0.94	-13%
iCF/60	–	13.56	13.12	+3%
iSCF/60	–	7.68	8.17	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	4.17	4.84	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 14 · 15 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 10.1% sits near the 14.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.82 (78th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.92 (1st half) to 0.75 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.93	8.08	10.31	-22%
IPP	67.23	64.74	70.28	-8%
1A/60	0.43	0.38	0.43	-11%
2A/60	0.51	0.19	0.64	-70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 14 · 15 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.1%, IPP 64.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.28	0.19	0.70	-73%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.46	0.00	7.32	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.56	1.11	-50%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 14 · 15 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.3 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Dan Muse) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.81	2.18	1.07	+103%
Hits/60	8.33	9.29	6.88	+35%
Blks/60	1.86	1.61	2.26	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 14 · 15 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.29/60 (83rd pct league-wide) → 8.33 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.94/60 and 2nd-half 1.73 vs a 1.61 season rate (2.26 3-yr) (20th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.86/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.09/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.