Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H239 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3177 GP · 3y
TOI	16.15	16.42	14.99	16.40	15.05
PP TOI	1.98	2.19	1.91	2.50	2.06
G	11	12	5	19	14
A	24	24	11	39	29
PTS	35	36	16	58	43
PPP	10	11	2	20	14
SOG	112	94	78	111	145
PIM	20	18	13	23	19
Hits	18	20	17	23	29
Blocks	32	38	42	34	25

Sample: 75 GP · 1,007 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

206Emmitt Finnie-32

207Gage Goncalves-32

208Steven Lorentz-32

209Andre Burakovsky-32

210Anthony Duclair-33

211Oliver Moore-33

212Jani Nyman-33

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 2 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 39 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 56% below his 3-year rate last season (0.30 against 0.68).

Below his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 51% below his 3-year rate last season (0.61 against 1.24).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks84% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks79% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Andre Burakovsky is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year (CHI, traded): Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.15	16.42	15.05	+9%
5v5 TOI	13.03	13.43	12.48	+8%
PP TOI	1.98	2.19	2.06	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.15: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.03: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.98: role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 2.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.91	3.99	6.44	-38%
G/60	0.38	0.42	0.55	-23%
iSH%	9.75	10.53	8.47	+24%
ixG/60	–	0.54	0.55	-2%
iCF/60	–	8.28	12.63	-34%
iSCF/60	–	5.54	6.89	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	2.68	2.17	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.5% vs a 8.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.54 (42nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.7% pulls the goal rate ~9% down.

RiskShot volume down 38% (5v5 SOG/60 3.99 vs 6.44) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.71 (1st half) to 0.37 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.79	9.08	8.24	+10%
IPP	56.79	53.69	64.36	-17%
1A/60	0.45	0.30	0.68	-56%
2A/60	0.40	0.60	0.30	+99%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 53.7% sits below the 64.4% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.68 vs 2.17) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.60 vs 3-yr 0.30) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.98	2.19	2.06	+6%
PP iSH%	15.27	19.93	15.27	+30%
PP SOG/60	6.21	5.47	9.69	-44%
PP ixG/60	–	0.61	1.24	-51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.2→2.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.4 vs 2.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.83	0.71	1.09	-35%
Hits/60	1.01	1.07	1.68	-36%
Blks/60	1.85	2.03	1.41	+44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.86 below the 1.07 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.01/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.68 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.34/60 and 2nd-half 2.25 vs a 2.03 season rate (1.41 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.85/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.