Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2658 GP	H234 GP	H124 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	8.82	8.82	9.30	8.00	–
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	–
G	4	4	-0	10	–
A	8	8	14	-0	–
PTS	12	13	14	10	–
PPP	0	0	0	0	–
SOG	76	76	81	70	–
PIM	78	78	77	79	–
Hits	226	235	224	249	–
Blocks	38	38	41	34	–

Sample: 58 GP · 504 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

138Fabian Zetterlund-7

139Alex Killorn-8

140Nick Foligno-8

141Jeff Malott-8

142Connor Dewar-9

143Nick Cousins-10

144Brandon Duhaime-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Second-half fade

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 29% below where it started (24.02 in the first half, 16.96 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 99th percentile league-wide (1.14).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 41 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche96% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightning94% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs93% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightning93% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jeff Malott is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year (LAK, traded): Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	8.82	8.82	n/a
5v5 TOI	8.64	8.70	n/a
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 8 · 21 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 8.82: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 8.64: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 0.01: same coach (Joel Quenneville) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.30	6.30	n/a
G/60	0.36	0.36	n/a
iSH%	5.71	5.71	n/a
ixG/60	–	1.14	n/a
iCF/60	–	14.87	n/a
iSCF/60	–	9.51	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	5.95	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 8 · 21 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	7.96	7.96	n/a
IPP	50.00	50.00	n/a
1A/60	0.59	0.59	n/a
2A/60	0.12	0.12	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 8 · 21 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 50.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 8 · 21 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Joel Quenneville) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	6.54	6.54	n/a
Hits/60	19.18	19.74	n/a
Blks/60	3.21	3.21	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 8 · 21 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 14.61/60 and 2nd-half 16.96 below the 19.74 season rate — projected DOWN to 19.18/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.21/60 (66th pct league-wide) → 3.21 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.36/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.