Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H242 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3198 GP · 3y
TOI	11.35	11.42	12.45	10.17	11.65
PP TOI	0.07	0.07	0.04	0.09	0.22
G	9	9	6	13	9
A	14	14	20	8	15
PTS	23	23	25	21	24
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	91	80	92	67	117
PIM	71	93	103	82	59
Hits	150	171	174	168	125
Blocks	41	42	49	34	38

Sample: 81 GP · 913 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

140Nick Foligno-8

141Jeff Malott-8

142Connor Dewar-9

143Nick Cousins-10

144Brandon Duhaime-10

145Jeff Skinner-10

146Rafael Harvey-Pinard-11

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 68% below where it started (19.84 in the first half, 6.31 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 38% above his 3-year rate last season (11.11 against 8.04).

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 58% above his 3-year rate last season (6.05 against 3.84).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Josh AndersonLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens94% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche93% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightning93% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs92% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nick Cousins is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.35	11.42	11.65	-2%
5v5 TOI	11.68	11.27	11.30	-0%
PP TOI	0.07	0.07	0.22	-70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.35: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.68: same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 12.4, Q4 12.4) over the full-year 11.3
PP TOI → 0.07: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.03	5.19	7.43	-30%
G/60	0.46	0.59	0.56	+5%
iSH%	9.16	11.37	7.57	+50%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.70	-7%
iCF/60	–	9.07	12.63	-28%
iSCF/60	–	5.39	7.05	-24%
iHDCF/60	–	3.02	3.43	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 11.4% vs a 7.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.2% pulls the goal rate ~22% down.

RiskShot volume down 30% (5v5 SOG/60 5.19 vs 7.43) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.57→0.72 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.03	9.27	7.19	+29%
IPP	64.15	63.71	64.68	-1%
1A/60	0.40	0.39	0.40	-4%
2A/60	0.45	0.53	0.51	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.3% vs a 7.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.07	0.22	-70%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.05	0.00	4.21	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.06	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.87	6.05	3.84	+58%
Hits/60	9.39	11.11	8.04	+38%
Blks/60	2.56	2.69	2.36	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (88th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (9.39/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.69/60 (54th pct league-wide) → 2.56 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.13/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.