Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2639 GP	H234 GP	H15 GP	Prev 3237 GP · 3y
TOI	21.36	21.31	20.45	–	21.49
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.10	–	0.22
G	6	2	2	–	7
A	▼17	15	16	–	25
PTS	▼23	17	18	–	32
PPP	0	0	0	–	0
SOG	134	133	143	–	136
PIM	8	8	9	–	8
Hits	28	13	14	–	39
Blocks	123	114	114	–	120

Sample: 39 GP · 663 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

196Elias Salomonsson-25

197Carson Soucy-25

198Shakir Mukhamadullin-25

199Jaccob Slavin-26

200Ryan Graves-26

201Seamus Casey-26

202Matthew Benning-27

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Faded 28 -> ~23. Stay-at-home top-pair D whose offence has not returned, now 32. Outside reads are 26.3 and 19.8 per-84; landed between them rather than chasing the low one. Worth flagging that an earlier D adjustment in this file was calibrated against outside reads of 28.1/28.9 - the newer external number is materially lower, so that anchor is stale and the comparable bets should be revisited.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

iSCF/60

iSCF/60 ran 44% below his 3-year rate last season (1.99 against 3.56).

Bottom of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (0.27).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 13% above last season, 15 to 17.

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 21% below his 3-year rate last season (2.99 against 3.77).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres83% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers77% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers76% match
Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames76% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jaccob Slavin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: PPP, PIM, A, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.36	21.31	21.49	-1%
5v5 TOI	17.22	17.01	17.50	-3%
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.22	-60%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 3 · 18 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.36: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.22: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.13: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.01	5.16	5.00	+3%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.19	-100%
iSH%	2.66	0.00	3.81	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.18	0.22	-18%
iCF/60	–	10.49	12.64	-17%
iSCF/60	–	1.99	3.56	-44%
iHDCF/60	–	0.45	0.50	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 3 · 18 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 0.0% sits near the 3.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.18 (19th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.08	8.09	8.07	+0%
IPP	23.38	15.32	36.53	-58%
1A/60	0.16	0.09	0.30	-70%
2A/60	0.39	0.27	0.49	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 3 · 18 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 15.3% sits below the 36.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.13	0.09	0.22	-60%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	13.50	17.31	3.40	+409%
PP ixG/60	–	0.73	0.39	+88%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 3 · 18 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 0.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.73 vs 0.39) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.19	0.18	0.26	-31%
Hits/60	0.36	0.27	1.20	-78%
Blks/60	3.31	2.99	3.77	-21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 3 · 18 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (1st pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.99/60 (62nd pct league-wide) → 3.31 projected.