Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2650 GP	H227 GP	H123 GP	Prev 330 GP · 1y
TOI	17.20	17.14	17.47	16.16	18.07
PP TOI	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.07	0.67
G	6	8	9	7	5
A	15	11	9	14	19
PTS	21	20	18	21	24
PPP	1	0	0	0	5
SOG	80	80	94	64	82
PIM	25	36	30	43	22
Hits	64	57	73	39	68
Blocks	123	103	105	102	140

Sample: 50 GP · 769 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

195Ryan McDonagh-25

196Elias Salomonsson-25

197Carson Soucy-25

198Shakir Mukhamadullin-25

199Jaccob Slavin-26

200Ryan Graves-26

201Seamus Casey-26

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 73 pace in the second half after 39 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 36% above last season, 11 to 15.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 45% above his 3-year rate last season (10.21 against 7.04).

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 33% above where it started (3.25 in the first half, 4.31 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals85% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers84% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers84% match
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken77% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Shakir Mukhamadullin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year (SJS, traded): Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.20	17.14	18.07	-5%
5v5 TOI	15.59	15.40	15.77	-2%
PP TOI	0.09	0.06	0.67	-91%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 8 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.20: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.59: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.09: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.87	3.82	3.55	+8%
G/60	0.31	0.39	0.25	+56%
iSH%	7.99	10.21	7.04	+45%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.20	-25%
iCF/60	–	8.81	9.89	-11%
iSCF/60	–	2.34	3.68	-36%
iHDCF/60	–	0.47	0.89	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 8 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.2% vs a 7.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 8.0% pulls the goal rate ~21% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.11→0.20 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.07	9.84	6.88	+43%
IPP	45.40	40.17	53.94	-26%
1A/60	0.24	0.23	0.25	-8%
2A/60	0.36	0.31	0.38	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 8 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.8% vs a 6.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.09	0.06	0.67	-91%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.60	0.00	3.00	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.33	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 8 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.42	1.71	1.01	+69%
Hits/60	2.97	2.73	3.17	-14%
Blks/60	4.41	4.13	4.82	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 14 · 8 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.71/60 and 2nd-half 3.05 vs a 2.73 season rate (3.17 3-yr) (34th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.97/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.13/60 (83rd pct league-wide) → 4.41 projected.