🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Matthew Benning

TOR · Age 32.2 · 🇨🇦 Canada · 6′1″, 203 lb · Draft 2012, 175th overall (BOS)
TORteam
Dposition
202position rank
557skater rank
-27overall
-46offense
19peripherals

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection adj2025-26thinH225-26H11 GPPrev 377 GP · 1y
TOI19.7819.78
PP TOI0.820.82
G11
A2425
PTS2526
PPP11
SOG6262
PIM2628
Hits103109
Blocks105

Sample: 1 GP · 12 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Blocks set to 105 as a holding value. His only full season, 2022-23 in San Jose, is one of the team-seasons where the source export's blocked-shot data is broken, so that row is excluded and his remaining samples are 14, 7 and 1 games. With no usable anchor the engine returned no block total at all, which dropped him out of the rankings entirely. 105 is a bottom-pair baseline, close to where his current teammates land, and it stands in for a real read rather than being one. Replace it once he has a clean full season.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Defense
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matthew Benning is weak or average, light where he’s strong
  • Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
    fills: SOG, A, PPP
  • Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice
Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI19.78n/a19.78
5v5 TOI15.66n/a15.66
PP TOI0.82n/a0.82
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 1 · 0 · 0
By season — year over year
TOI
19.7822-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
15.6622-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.8222-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/602.51n/a2.59
G/600.05n/a0.05
iSH%1.93n/a1.93
ixG/60n/a0.12
iCF/60n/a7.02
iSCF/60n/a1.94
iHDCF/60n/a0.25
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 1 · 0 · 0
SOG/60
3-yr 2.59Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 1.93Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.12Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 7.02Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 1.94Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 0.25Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
2.5922-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
1.9322-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.1222-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
7.0222-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
1.9422-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
0.2522-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
6222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%9.09n/a9.09
IPP45.85n/a45.85
1A/600.55n/a0.55
2A/600.45n/a0.45
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 1 · 0 · 0
1A/60
3-yr 0.55Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.45Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.5522-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.4522-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
2422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
2522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.1%, IPP 45.9%).
ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.82n/a0.82
PP iSH%0.00n/a0.00
PP SOG/601.90n/a1.90
PP ixG/60n/a0.07
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 1 · 0 · 0
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.82Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 1.90Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.07Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
0.8222-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
1.9022-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.0722-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj
2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/600.85n/a0.90
Hits/604.02n/a4.23
Blks/60n/an/a
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 1 · 0 · 0
PIMs/60
3-yr 0.90Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 4.23Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
no quarterly data
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
0.9022-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
4.2322-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
no season data
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
2622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
10322-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
10522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextHits role-stable at 4.23/60 (51st pct league-wide) → 4.02 projected.