Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2676 GP	H237 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3211 GP · 3y
TOI	18.46	18.34	17.23	18.55	19.32
PP TOI	0.06	0.07	0.09	0.05	0.03
G	3	2	2	2	3
A	14	8	6	8	19
PTS	17	10	9	11	22
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	63	52	41	62	82
PIM	46	65	44	84	47
Hits	66	51	55	46	102
Blocks	122	126	122	130	121

Sample: 76 GP · 1,163 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

200Ryan Graves-26

201Seamus Casey-26

202Matthew Benning-27

203Ryan Lindgren-27

204Scott Mayfield-27

205Daniil Miromanov-27

206Alex Vlasic-28

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 118% above where it started (3.31 in the first half, 7.23 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 44 pace in the second half after 84 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 45% below his 3-year rate last season (2.11 against 3.85).

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 34% below his 3-year rate last season (2.32 against 3.53).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals85% match
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers85% match
shared: PIM
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers80% match
shared: PIM
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins80% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan Lindgren is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.46	18.34	19.32	-5%
5v5 TOI	15.22	15.31	16.33	-6%
PP TOI	0.06	0.07	0.03	+102%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 19 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.46: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.22: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.06: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.21	2.32	3.53	-34%
G/60	0.08	0.10	0.12	-19%
iSH%	3.73	4.31	3.48	+24%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.16	-8%
iCF/60	–	7.84	8.95	-12%
iSCF/60	–	2.53	2.77	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	0.41	0.54	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 19 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 4.3% vs a 3.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 3.7% pulls the goal rate ~18% down.

RiskShot volume down 34% (5v5 SOG/60 2.32 vs 3.53) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.17 (1st half) to 0.14 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.77	8.27	9.37	-12%
IPP	24.74	20.00	32.48	-38%
1A/60	0.16	0.10	0.30	-66%
2A/60	0.37	0.15	0.43	-65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 19 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 20.0% sits below the 32.5% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.06	0.07	0.03	+102%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 19 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.21	2.89	1.83	+58%
Hits/60	2.76	2.11	3.85	-45%
Blks/60	4.11	4.23	3.93	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 19 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.39/60 and 2nd-half 2.45 vs a 2.11 season rate (3.85 3-yr) (26th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.76/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (85th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.11/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.