Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3189 GP · 3y
TOI	17.00	16.47	14.88	17.41	19.11
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.03
G	3	2	2	2	4
A	10	13	18	8	13
PTS	13	15	21	10	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	72	72	65	79	89
PIM	57	85	55	115	63
Hits	81	77	79	75	115
Blocks	101	84	66	101	158

Sample: 80 GP · 1,161 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

201Seamus Casey-26

202Matthew Benning-27

203Ryan Lindgren-27

204Scott Mayfield-27

205Daniil Miromanov-27

206Alex Vlasic-28

207Jackson Smith-29

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 55 pace in the second half after 115 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 66 pace in the second half after 101 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 23% below last season, 13 to 10.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 25% below his 3-year rate last season (2.93 against 3.93).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth87% match
shared: PIM
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils84% match
shared: PIM
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers83% match
shared: PIM
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues83% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Scott Mayfield is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.00	16.47	19.11	-14%
5v5 TOI	14.35	14.52	16.28	-11%
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	0.03	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.00: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.35: role tapered late (Q4 12.8 vs 14.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.02: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.31	3.41	3.96	-14%
G/60	0.12	0.10	0.16	-36%
iSH%	3.63	2.93	3.93	-25%
ixG/60	–	0.14	0.17	-17%
iCF/60	–	9.30	10.60	-12%
iSCF/60	–	2.07	2.57	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	0.16	0.56	-72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 2.9% sits near the 3.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.14 (11th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 3.41 vs 3.96) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.16 (1st half) to 0.12 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.27	7.91	8.71	-9%
IPP	34.90	43.09	29.44	+46%
1A/60	0.20	0.21	0.23	-10%
2A/60	0.30	0.47	0.27	+75%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 43.1% vs 29.4% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.47 vs 3-yr 0.27) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	0.03	-47%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	57.23	41.38	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	1.05	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.84	3.98	2.57	+55%
Hits/60	3.97	3.72	4.86	-23%
Blks/60	4.17	3.57	5.07	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.72/60 (46th pct league-wide) → 3.97 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.57/60 (72nd pct league-wide) → 4.17 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.16/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.