Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3158 GP · 2y
TOI	21.28	21.12	20.82	19.91	22.40
PP TOI	0.11	0.07	0.08	0.07	1.09
G	3	2	0	4	3
A	18	19	23	15	21
PTS	21	21	23	20	24
PPP	0	0	0	0	7
SOG	86	87	100	74	90
PIM	20	17	16	19	30
Hits	40	29	27	32	60
Blocks	140	120	127	113	158

Sample: 81 GP · 1,413 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

203Ryan Lindgren-27

204Scott Mayfield-27

205Daniil Miromanov-27

206Alex Vlasic-28

207Jackson Smith-29

208Wyatt Kaiser-29

209Ilya Solovyov-29

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 23 pace in the second half after 15 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 47% below his 3-year rate last season (1.10 against 2.09).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 33% below his 3-year rate last season (2.42 against 3.63).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 17% above last season, 120 to 140.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers80% match
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals78% match
shared: Blocks
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres77% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers75% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Vlasic is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 5
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM, A
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year: Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.28	21.12	22.40	-6%
5v5 TOI	17.78	17.45	17.96	-3%
PP TOI	0.11	0.07	1.09	-93%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.28: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.78: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.11: same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.39	3.31	2.92	+13%
G/60	0.10	0.08	0.11	-24%
iSH%	3.02	2.42	3.63	-33%
ixG/60	–	0.12	0.12	+4%
iCF/60	–	8.41	6.83	+23%
iSCF/60	–	2.04	1.63	+25%
iHDCF/60	–	0.25	0.28	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 2.4% vs 3.6% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.12 (7th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 3.0%, lifting the goal rate ~28%.

TailwindShot volume up 13% (5v5 SOG/60 3.31 vs 2.92) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.49	9.41	9.77	-4%
IPP	32.61	35.02	26.09	+34%
1A/60	0.31	0.38	0.19	+102%
2A/60	0.30	0.30	0.32	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 35.0% vs 26.1% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 8.41 vs 6.83) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.11	0.07	1.09	-93%
PP iSH%	2.42	0.00	4.31	-100%
PP SOG/60	20.46	20.22	8.01	+152%
PP ixG/60	–	0.77	0.52	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.77 vs 0.52) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.76	0.72	0.80	-10%
Hits/60	1.49	1.10	2.09	-47%
Blks/60	4.50	4.08	5.12	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (9th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.91/60 and 2nd-half 4.29 vs a 4.08 season rate (5.12 3-yr) (83rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.50/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.