Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H236 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3196 GP · 3y
TOI	12.35	12.35	11.46	12.61	13.94
PP TOI	1.35	1.37	1.26	1.48	1.60
G	11	7	11	4	19
A	14	17	11	22	16
PTS	25	24	23	26	35
PPP	4	5	5	6	5
SOG	124	127	121	132	165
PIM	50	42	48	36	62
Hits	87	104	118	92	72
Blocks	26	21	30	14	36

Sample: 77 GP · 822 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

172Robby Fabbri-20

173Sammy Blais-20

174Collin Graf-20

175Brendan Gallagher-21

176Philip Tomasino-21

177Linus Karlsson-22

178William Carrier-23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 79% below where it started (2.25 in the first half, 0.47 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 78% below where it started (10.01 in the first half, 2.16 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 65% above his 3-year rate last season (7.15 against 4.32).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 54% below his 3-year rate last season (4.62 against 10.02).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ryan LeonardRW · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs86% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Quinton ByfieldC,LW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: PIM
Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks84% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brendan Gallagher is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year (MTL, traded): Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.35	12.35	13.94	-11%
5v5 TOI	10.51	10.69	12.03	-11%
PP TOI	1.35	1.37	1.60	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.35: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.51: role tapered late (Q4 9.6 vs 10.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.35: role tapered late (Q4 1.2 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.57	7.80	8.88	-12%
G/60	0.47	0.36	0.89	-60%
iSH%	7.75	4.62	10.02	-54%
ixG/60	–	1.01	1.09	-8%
iCF/60	–	15.39	17.12	-10%
iSCF/60	–	7.88	10.08	-22%
iHDCF/60	–	4.67	5.06	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.6% sits near the 10.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 1.01 (95th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 7.80 vs 8.88) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.03	9.57	8.36	+14%
IPP	58.20	49.81	71.90	-31%
1A/60	0.40	0.29	0.56	-48%
2A/60	0.41	0.66	0.23	+192%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 49.8% sits below the 71.9% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.66 vs 3-yr 0.23) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.35	1.37	1.60	-14%
PP iSH%	15.98	16.62	15.80	+5%
PP SOG/60	5.60	6.80	7.29	-7%
PP ixG/60	–	1.50	1.71	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.24	2.70	3.51	-23%
Hits/60	6.10	7.15	4.32	+65%
Blks/60	1.80	1.46	2.08	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 8.36/60 and 2nd-half 8.47 vs a 7.15 season rate (4.32 3-yr) (76th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.10/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.67/60 and 2nd-half 2.04 vs a 1.46 season rate (2.08 3-yr) (16th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.80/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.