Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H241 GP	H138 GP	Prev 323 GP · 1y
TOI	12.23	12.51	13.80	10.39	10.93
PP TOI	1.18	1.36	1.37	1.34	0.86
G	13	16	10	22	11
A	16	21	24	17	11
PTS	29	36	34	39	22
PPP	7	4	4	4	7
SOG	118	120	122	119	100
PIM	30	44	36	52	21
Hits	79	86	58	117	96
Blocks	32	23	29	16	29

Sample: 79 GP · 851 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

174Collin Graf-20

175Brendan Gallagher-21

176Philip Tomasino-21

177Linus Karlsson-22

178William Carrier-23

179Noel Acciari-23

180Alex Newhook-23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 57% above his 3-year rate last season (1.36 against 0.86).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 22 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 63% below where it started (9.40 in the first half, 3.46 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 65% above his 3-year rate last season (14.20 against 8.62).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres82% match
Ryan LeonardRW · Washington Capitals82% match
shared: Hits
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers82% match
shared: Hits
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Linus Karlsson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.23	12.51	10.93	+14%
5v5 TOI	11.45	10.78	9.94	+8%
PP TOI	1.18	1.36	0.86	+57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.23: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.45: new coach (Manny Malhotra) — late-year 13.1 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 1.18: role tapered late (Q4 0.8 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.39	6.48	6.03	+7%
G/60	0.70	0.92	0.52	+77%
iSH%	10.96	14.20	8.62	+65%
ixG/60	–	1.08	1.17	-8%
iCF/60	–	12.05	12.86	-6%
iSCF/60	–	8.10	8.92	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	4.93	6.03	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 14.2% vs a 8.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 1.08 (97th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 11.0% pulls the goal rate ~24% down.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.34 (1st half) to 0.91 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.70	10.24	11.35	-10%
IPP	57.07	78.16	40.08	+95%
1A/60	0.54	0.56	0.52	+8%
2A/60	0.20	0.56	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 78.2% vs 40.1% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.18	1.36	0.86	+57%
PP iSH%	17.60	9.08	20.00	-55%
PP SOG/60	11.88	12.33	15.15	-19%
PP ixG/60	–	2.66	4.62	-42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.4→1.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.8 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.06	2.39	1.57	+52%
Hits/60	5.08	5.85	7.08	-17%
Blks/60	1.68	1.41	2.10	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.70/60 and 2nd-half 3.46 below the 5.85 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 7.08 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.80/60 and 2nd-half 1.52 vs a 1.41 season rate (2.10 3-yr) (14th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.68/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.