Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2641 GP	H231 GP	H110 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	13.38	12.67	12.27	11.97	–
PP TOI	1.48	1.43	1.34	1.69	–
G	▼21	20	21	16	–
A	▲13	10	13	2	–
PTS	▲34	30	34	18	–
PPP	▲8	6	5	8	–
SOG	▲137	114	111	123	–
PIM	▲21	20	16	33	–
Hits	▼115	114	103	148	–
Blocks	▼20	24	28	12	–

Sample: 41 GP · 441 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

142Andrei Kuzmenko-6

143Alex Killorn-8

144Jack Roslovic-8

145Nick Lardis-8

146Roman Kantserov-9

147Charlie Stramel-9

148Nick Paul-10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (sniper, moves up to Bedard/Frondell; one day could become someone like Dorofeyev) blended with 2025-26 NHL (41 GP) at w=0.50. HITS corrected 2026-07-27 from 77 to 115: his hit rate is 7.3/60 and sustained across the season (9.2 / 7.4 / 6.3 by quarter), which over 13.4 TOI x 82 implies ~134. The 77 came from the rookie-baseline blend, so the engine's HITS-persist behaviour never applied to it - this was a rookie-baseline artifact, not a projection. Left slightly under his own rate as a rookie-minutes hedge. Points are unchanged and agree across every source; the hits ARE his draft value in a banger league. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 137% above where it started (9.02 in the first half, 21.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 51% below where it started (1.90 in the first half, 0.94 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 33% above last season, 6 to 8.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 30% above last season, 10 to 13.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken82% match
shared: Hits
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres78% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers78% match
shared: Hits
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres77% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nick Lardis is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year: Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	13.38	12.67	n/a
5v5 TOI	11.43	10.76	n/a
PP TOI	1.48	1.43	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 12 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.38: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 11.43: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.48: role tapered late (Q4 1.3 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.03	5.85	n/a
G/60	1.12	1.09	n/a
iSH%	18.63	18.63	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.76	n/a
iCF/60	–	12.65	n/a
iSCF/60	–	7.89	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	2.99	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 12 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Lardis for a full 2026-27 CHI role with goal/SOG upside that rises if he lands top-six/top-line minutes with Bedard or Frondell.

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 21 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +8% and role +6% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	8.03	8.03	n/a
IPP	78.95	78.95	n/a
1A/60	0.27	0.27	n/a
2A/60	0.14	0.14	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 12 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 78.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.48	1.43	n/a
PP iSH%	20.02	20.02	n/a
PP SOG/60	10.24	10.24	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.19	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 12 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.5 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.29	1.36	n/a
Hits/60	7.62	7.62	n/a
Blks/60	1.38	1.36	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 10 · 12 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.62/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 7.62 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.12/60 and 2nd-half 1.77 vs a 1.36 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (12th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.38/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.