Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2671 GP	H241 GP	H130 GP	Prev 3201 GP · 3y
TOI	14.67	14.56	14.44	13.41	15.37
PP TOI	1.79	1.74	1.84	1.60	1.77
G	15	16	16	16	15
A	29	29	32	25	36
PTS	44	45	48	41	51
PPP	11	9	10	8	11
SOG	117	104	125	76	121
PIM	15	19	16	22	14
Hits	34	28	36	16	22
Blocks	18	20	15	26	20

Sample: 71 GP · 870 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

174Alex Newhook-23

175Zemgus Girgensons-23

176Kurtis MacDermid-23

177Matias Maccelli-24

178Teuvo Teravainen-24

179Yegor Sharangovich-25

180Casey Mittelstadt-25

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 73% above where it started (5.27 in the first half, 9.11 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 60% below where it started (27.61 in the first half, 10.99 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 72% above his 3-year rate last season (1.47 against 0.85).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres86% match
Luke EvangelistaRW · Nashville Predators83% match
Tyler SeguinC,RW · Dallas Stars80% match
Pavel ZachaC,LW · Boston Bruins79% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matias Maccelli is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year (TOR, traded): Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.67	14.56	15.37	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.27	12.26	12.76	-4%
PP TOI	1.79	1.74	1.77	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.67: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.27: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.79: same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.8, Q4 1.8) over the full-year 1.7

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.90	4.82	5.34	-10%
G/60	0.75	0.83	0.66	+27%
iSH%	15.35	17.22	12.29	+40%
ixG/60	–	0.58	0.58	+0%
iCF/60	–	9.37	11.30	-17%
iSCF/60	–	5.24	5.71	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	2.89	2.36	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 17.2% vs a 12.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.58 (45th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 15.3% pulls the goal rate ~9% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.43→0.65 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.29	11.49	8.93	+29%
IPP	74.10	72.30	77.44	-7%
1A/60	0.64	0.69	0.75	-8%
2A/60	0.47	0.62	0.54	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.5% vs a 8.9% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.89 vs 2.36) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.79	1.74	1.77	-2%
PP iSH%	9.10	12.47	6.66	+87%
PP SOG/60	8.01	7.78	7.59	+3%
PP ixG/60	–	1.47	0.85	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.8 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.47 vs 0.85) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.88	0.96	0.75	+28%
Hits/60	2.03	1.65	1.24	+33%
Blks/60	1.00	1.10	1.07	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 10 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.15/60 and 2nd-half 2.26 vs a 1.65 season rate (1.24 3-yr) (18th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.03/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.86/60 and 2nd-half 0.82 below the 1.10 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.00/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.07 3-yr mark.