Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2675 GP	H235 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3226 GP · 3y
TOI	17.56	17.75	16.64	17.50	16.80
PP TOI	2.35	2.80	3.21	2.44	2.32
G	▼14	15	11	20	19
A	▼26	23	23	23	35
PTS	▼40	38	34	42	54
PPP	▼15	21	21	21	19
SOG	109	97	99	96	144
PIM	9	7	5	8	14
Hits	19	23	13	32	21
Blocks	36	47	48	46	25

Sample: 75 GP · 914 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

175Zemgus Girgensons-23

176Kurtis MacDermid-23

177Matias Maccelli-24

178Teuvo Teravainen-24

179Yegor Sharangovich-25

180Casey Mittelstadt-25

181Nino Niederreiter-25

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Fade. The 45-point projection leaned on two things that are both shaky. First, power-play minutes the roster no longer has room for. Second, two straight seasons of unsustainable PP finishing - 35.0% in 2024-25 and 25.9% in 2025-26 against an ixG-implied ~16.1% - which is what the projected PPP of 19 required to hold. Meanwhile his even-strength game is in free fall at 32: P60 1.75 -> 0.93, ixG60 0.40 -> 0.34, shots 4.7 -> 3.5, and a Q4 EV P60 of 0.53. Cutting the PP minutes lets the PPP fall to ~15 and lands him ~39.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 72% below where it started (16.28 in the first half, 4.57 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 62% below his 3-year rate last season (0.26 against 0.69).

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 29% below last season, 21 to 15.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks86% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets82% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks82% match
Matvei GridinRW · Calgary Flames80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Teuvo Teravainen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year: Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.56	17.75	16.80	+6%
5v5 TOI	11.90	12.19	12.27	-1%
PP TOI	2.35	2.80	2.32	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.56: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.90: role tapered late (Q4 11.5 vs 12.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 2.35: there is no PP1 seat left. Bedard, Kane, Bertuzzi and Byram (QB) are locked, and the fifth slot goes to Nazar or Frondell - both younger, both ahead of him on the depth chart. The projected 2.84 was PP1-adjacent minutes he has no path to. Drops to a real PP2 role with spillover, hedged rather than cratered because he remains a genuinely good power-play player.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.61	3.61	5.63	-36%
G/60	0.36	0.39	0.52	-25%
iSH%	9.89	10.80	9.23	+17%
ixG/60	–	0.31	0.49	-37%
iCF/60	–	8.34	10.45	-20%
iSCF/60	–	3.48	5.43	-36%
iHDCF/60	–	1.58	1.80	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.8% vs a 9.2% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.31 (32nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.9% pulls the goal rate ~8% down.

RiskShot volume down 36% (5v5 SOG/60 3.61 vs 5.63) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.35 (1st half) to 0.27 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.44	6.82	8.44	-19%
IPP	57.42	53.80	63.33	-15%
1A/60	0.44	0.26	0.69	-62%
2A/60	0.32	0.20	0.34	-42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 53.8% sits below the 63.3% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.35	2.80	2.32	+20%
PP iSH%	21.64	25.91	21.64	+20%
PP SOG/60	8.56	7.72	11.08	-30%
PP ixG/60	–	1.24	1.43	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.8→2.4 PP TOI/gp (there is no PP1 seat left. Bedard, Kane, Bertuzzi and Byram (QB) are locked, and the fifth slot goes to Nazar or Frondell - both younger, both ahead of him on the depth chart. The projected 2.84 was PP1-adjacent minutes he has no path to. Drops to a real PP2 role with spillover, hedged rather than cratered because he remains a genuinely good power-play player.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.26	0.26	0.69	-62%
Hits/60	1.08	1.25	1.19	+5%
Blks/60	1.43	1.64	1.10	+49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 16 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.10/60 and 2nd-half 0.72 below the 1.25 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.19 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.64/60 (21st pct league-wide) → 1.43 projected.