Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2651 GP	H216 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3188 GP · 3y
TOI	12.49	11.99	10.40	12.43	14.29
PP TOI	0.07	0.05	0.01	0.07	0.48
G	6	3	2	4	8
A	16	14	2	18	21
PTS	22	18	3	22	29
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	88	58	49	65	113
PIM	33	14	34	9	50
Hits	151	185	200	175	133
Blocks	47	55	46	58	48

Sample: 51 GP · 564 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

193Kasperi Kapanen-28

194Michael Amadio-28

195Nicolas Roy-28

196Mathieu Joseph-29

197Alexey Toropchenko-29

198Justin Kirkland-30

199Simon Holmstrom-30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 73% below his 3-year rate last season (0.21 against 0.79).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 54% above his 3-year rate last season (12.11 against 7.87).

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 46 pace in the second half after 58 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 14% above last season, 14 to 16.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings91% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mathieu Joseph is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year (STL, traded): D.J. Smith LAK · pre-trade → Jim Montgomery STL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.49	11.99	14.29	-16%
5v5 TOI	10.97	11.07	11.81	-6%
PP TOI	0.07	0.05	0.48	-90%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 4 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.49: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.97: role tapered late (Q4 9.6 vs 11.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.07: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.72	3.72	5.89	-37%
G/60	0.15	0.11	0.30	-63%
iSH%	4.17	2.96	5.06	-42%
ixG/60	–	0.54	0.61	-12%
iCF/60	–	8.82	11.68	-24%
iSCF/60	–	5.53	6.40	-14%
iHDCF/60	–	3.51	2.81	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 4 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.0% sits near the 5.1% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.54 (42nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 37% (5v5 SOG/60 3.72 vs 5.89) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.46	6.91	8.85	-22%
IPP	64.10	64.43	63.46	+2%
1A/60	0.41	0.21	0.79	-73%
2A/60	0.49	0.64	0.43	+48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 4 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.9%, IPP 64.4%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.51 vs 2.81) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.64 vs 3-yr 0.43) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.05	0.48	-90%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	14.31
PP SOG/60	0.93	0.00	4.66	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.64	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 4 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.30	0.96	2.30	-58%
Hits/60	11.28	12.11	7.87	+54%
Blks/60	2.61	2.87	2.21	+30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 18 · 4 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 15.06/60 and 2nd-half 15.06 vs a 12.11 season rate (7.87 3-yr) (90th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 11.28/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.87/60 (59th pct league-wide) → 2.61 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.11/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.