Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2651 GP	H228 GP	H123 GP	Prev 3142 GP · 2y
TOI	13.71	13.82	14.20	12.57	13.20
PP TOI	1.15	1.17	1.28	1.02	1.21
G	14	13	7	19	16
A	17	22	23	21	14
PTS	31	35	31	41	30
PPP	6	5	3	7	8
SOG	103	93	78	112	107
PIM	18	19	17	21	17
Hits	51	66	70	61	35
Blocks	24	22	32	11	23

Sample: 51 GP · 626 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

231Danton Heinen-39

232Victor Eklund-40

233Ondrej Palat-40

234Jonatan Berggren-40

235Alexander Kerfoot-40

236Nils Hoglander-41

237Berkly Catton-41

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 3 pace in the second half after 7 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 7 pace in the second half after 19 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 83% above his 3-year rate last season (3.93 against 2.15).

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (0.67 against 0.43).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets79% match
Tyler SeguinC,RW · Dallas Stars78% match
Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth78% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jonatan Berggren is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PIM
Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year (STL, traded): Todd McLellan DET · pre-trade → Jim Montgomery STL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.71	13.82	13.20	+5%
5v5 TOI	12.38	12.28	11.77	+4%
PP TOI	1.15	1.17	1.21	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 11 · 15 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.71: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.38: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.15: role tapered late (Q4 0.8 vs 1.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.45	4.69	5.60	-16%
G/60	0.43	0.38	0.61	-38%
iSH%	9.70	8.10	10.86	-25%
ixG/60	–	0.51	0.59	-14%
iCF/60	–	10.73	10.34	+4%
iSCF/60	–	5.17	5.61	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	1.72	2.26	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 11 · 15 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.1% sits near the 10.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.51 (39th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 4.69 vs 5.60) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.65 (1st half) to 0.41 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.40	8.78	7.62	+15%
IPP	70.89	71.97	67.62	+6%
1A/60	0.58	0.67	0.43	+55%
2A/60	0.34	0.67	0.21	+214%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 11 · 15 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.8%, IPP 72.0%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.67 vs 3-yr 0.21) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.15	1.17	1.21	-4%
PP iSH%	33.36	50.00	33.36	+50%
PP SOG/60	5.65	6.06	8.38	-28%
PP ixG/60	–	0.58	1.30	-55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 11 · 15 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.1 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (50.0% vs 33.4% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.58) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.98	0.96	1.01	-5%
Hits/60	3.55	3.93	2.15	+83%
Blks/60	1.51	1.34	1.40	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 12 · 11 · 15 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 6.13/60 and 2nd-half 4.14 vs a 3.93 season rate (2.15 3-yr) (48th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.55/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.80/60 and 2nd-half 1.83 vs a 1.34 season rate (1.40 3-yr) (11th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.51/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.