Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3197 GP · 3y
TOI	12.79	12.82	12.26	12.73	14.88
PP TOI	0.62	0.77	0.52	1.00	1.20
G	8	5	6	4	14
A	13	10	8	12	20
PTS	21	15	15	16	34
PPP	2	2	2	2	5
SOG	81	85	74	96	118
PIM	13	14	13	16	23
Hits	118	136	144	129	119
Blocks	59	69	69	68	60

Sample: 80 GP · 921 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

230Sam Steel-39

231Danton Heinen-39

232Victor Eklund-40

233Ondrej Palat-40

234Jonatan Berggren-40

235Alexander Kerfoot-40

236Nils Hoglander-41

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 53% below where it started (1.00 in the first half, 0.47 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 53% below his 3-year rate last season (5.39 against 11.52).

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 48% below his 3-year rate last season (0.26 against 0.50).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 30% above last season, 10 to 13.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets84% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings80% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks79% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ondrej Palat is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year (NYI, traded): Sheldon Keefe NJD · pre-trade → Peter DeBoer NYI · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.79	12.82	14.88	-14%
5v5 TOI	11.28	11.52	12.85	-10%
PP TOI	0.62	0.77	1.20	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.79: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.28: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.62: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.58	4.82	5.78	-17%
G/60	0.33	0.26	0.67	-61%
iSH%	8.95	5.39	11.52	-53%
ixG/60	–	0.60	0.68	-12%
iCF/60	–	9.76	11.26	-13%
iSCF/60	–	6.57	7.09	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	3.25	3.24	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.4% sits near the 11.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.60 (47th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 4.82 vs 5.78) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.64	8.64	8.63	+0%
IPP	41.38	30.77	58.74	-48%
1A/60	0.32	0.26	0.50	-48%
2A/60	0.31	0.20	0.36	-44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 30.8% sits below the 58.7% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.62	0.77	1.20	-36%
PP iSH%	13.75	14.31	13.35	+7%
PP SOG/60	5.55	6.85	7.63	-10%
PP ixG/60	–	1.83	1.31	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.8→0.6 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.83 vs 1.31) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.71	0.78	1.21	-36%
Hits/60	7.33	8.27	6.37	+30%
Blks/60	3.82	4.23	3.20	+32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.35/60 and 2nd-half 9.00 vs a 8.27 season rate (6.37 3-yr) (80th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 7.33/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (85th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (3.82/60 projected).