Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2666 GP	H240 GP	H126 GP	Prev 373 GP · 1y
TOI	10.57	10.46	10.59	10.17	11.25
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.02	–	0.09
G	10	10	12	8	11
A	9	11	10	13	8
PTS	19	21	22	20	19
PPP	0	0	0	–	0
SOG	102	107	114	96	95
PIM	16	20	7	40	19
Hits	215	231	221	247	199
Blocks	29	24	27	18	29

Sample: 66 GP · 569 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

184Barclay Goodrow-26

185Alex Bump-27

186Victor Olofsson-27

187Cole Koepke-27

188Brandon Tanev-28

189Zack Ostapchuk-28

190Brennan Othmann-28

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 88% above where it started (6.26 in the first half, 11.79 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 88% below where it started (3.20 in the first half, 0.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 38% above his 3-year rate last season (0.91 against 0.66).

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 39% below his 3-year rate last season (1.26 against 2.07).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken78% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild77% match
shared: Hits
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders77% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights75% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Cole Koepke is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.57	10.46	11.25	-7%
5v5 TOI	9.12	8.63	10.31	-16%
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.09	-87%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 12 · 20 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.57: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.12: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 8.8, Q4 9.7) over the full-year 8.6
PP TOI → 0.02: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.59	7.59	6.06	+25%
G/60	0.80	0.74	0.72	+3%
iSH%	10.56	9.75	11.88	-18%
ixG/60	–	0.91	0.66	+38%
iCF/60	–	15.39	11.80	+30%
iSCF/60	–	7.59	5.26	+44%
iHDCF/60	–	4.22	2.71	+56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 12 · 20 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 9.7% vs 11.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.91 (88th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 10.6%, lifting the goal rate ~8%.

TailwindShot volume up 25% (5v5 SOG/60 7.59 vs 6.06) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.81→1.00 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.20	8.04	9.25	-13%
IPP	81.35	84.50	67.02	+26%
1A/60	0.48	0.53	0.40	+32%
2A/60	0.25	0.42	0.16	+162%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 12 · 20 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 84.5% vs 67.0% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 15.39 vs 11.80) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.22 vs 2.71) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.09	-87%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	3.76	0.00	18.80	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.38	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 12 · 20 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.04	1.48	1.36	+9%
Hits/60	16.80	18.76	13.87	+35%
Blks/60	1.60	1.26	2.07	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 12 · 20 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (97th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (16.80/60 projected).

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.86/60 and 2nd-half 1.50 vs a 1.26 season rate (2.07 3-yr) (9th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.60/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.