Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2668 GP	H228 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3136 GP · 2y
TOI	15.06	15.16	14.23	15.06	14.40
PP TOI	2.20	1.97	1.84	2.06	2.08
G	15	18	13	22	14
A	23	18	14	21	25
PTS	38	36	27	43	39
PPP	7	8	9	8	5
SOG	117	125	98	144	112
PIM	22	29	14	39	19
Hits	88	97	82	107	80
Blocks	37	47	49	46	33

Sample: 68 GP · 864 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

158Yegor Chinakhov-12

159Trent Frederic-12

160Cole Smith-12

161Bobby Brink-14

162Justin Danforth-14

163Anthony Beauvillier-14

164Alex Iafallo-16

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Minnesota traded for him and both depth charts put him on a power play unit, so his PP minutes go back to the 2 minute baseline he held across 3 seasons in Philadelphia. The number we carried before leaned on an 11 game finish, his smallest sample of the season.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 70% below where it started (0.46 in the first half, 0.14 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 79% above his 3-year rate last season (2.49 against 1.39).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 39 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 21% below last season, 47 to 37.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets88% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken87% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights85% match
shared: Hits
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Bobby Brink is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year (PHI, traded): John Hynes MIN · pre-trade → Rick Tocchet PHI · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.06	15.16	14.40	+5%
5v5 TOI	12.38	12.72	11.84	+7%
PP TOI	2.20	1.97	2.08	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 11

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.06: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.38: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.20: back to the baseline he held in Philadelphia; both charts have him on a PP unit and the low number rode an 11 game finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.04	5.55	5.17	+7%
G/60	0.65	0.76	0.60	+28%
iSH%	12.87	13.69	11.52	+19%
ixG/60	–	0.70	0.61	+16%
iCF/60	–	10.48	9.57	+9%
iSCF/60	–	6.73	5.29	+27%
iHDCF/60	–	3.05	2.83	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 11

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.70 (61st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.61 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.64→0.79 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.94	8.27	10.40	-20%
IPP	72.25	71.65	73.26	-2%
1A/60	0.55	0.35	0.82	-57%
2A/60	0.49	0.28	0.52	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 11

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.3%, IPP 71.6%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.48 vs 9.57) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.20	1.97	2.08	-5%
PP iSH%	13.70	14.94	12.81	+17%
PP SOG/60	8.70	8.97	8.27	+9%
PP ixG/60	–	2.49	1.39	+79%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 11

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.0→2.2 PP TOI/gp (back to the baseline he held in Philadelphia; both charts have him on a PP unit and the low number rode an 11 game finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.49 vs 1.39) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.26	1.53	0.89	+71%
Hits/60	5.21	5.55	4.69	+18%
Blks/60	2.23	2.43	1.94	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 17 · 11

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.55/60 (65th pct league-wide) → 5.21 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.43/60 (47th pct league-wide) → 2.23 projected.