Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2660 GP	H233 GP	H127 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	7.20	7.20	7.28	7.03	–
PP TOI	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.08	–
G	1	1	0	3	–
A	13	12	12	12	–
PTS	14	14	12	15	–
PPP	0	0	0	0	–
SOG	49	48	42	55	–
PIM	19	19	25	12	–
Hits	68	68	67	70	–
Blocks	30	30	30	30	–

Sample: 60 GP · 422 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

275Tristan Broz-71

276Ivan Ivan-74

277Mattias Janmark-76

278Sasha Pastujov-76

279Zakhar Bardakov-79

280Oskar Back-86

281Viljami Marjala-91

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 76% above where it started (1.30 in the first half, 2.30 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

2A/60

2A/60 finished the year 84% below where it started (1.28 in the first half, 0.20 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

TOI

TOI sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (7.20).

Bottom of the league

5v5 TOI

5v5 TOI sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (7.04).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets79% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres76% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken76% match
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights74% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zakhar Bardakov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	7.20	7.20	n/a
5v5 TOI	7.16	7.04	n/a
PP TOI	0.04	0.06	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 21 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 7.20: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 7.16: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 0.04: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	4.97	4.97	n/a
G/60	0.14	0.14	n/a
iSH%	2.82	2.82	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.69	n/a
iCF/60	–	11.23	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.40	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.27	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 21 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	8.91	8.91	n/a
IPP	58.68	58.68	n/a
1A/60	0.57	0.57	n/a
2A/60	0.71	0.71	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 21 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.9%, IPP 58.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.04	0.06	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 21 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.99	1.99	n/a
Hits/60	6.99	7.11	n/a
Blks/60	2.79	2.84	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 12 · 21 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 5.37/60 and 2nd-half 6.56 below the 7.11 season rate — projected DOWN to 6.99/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.01/60 and 2nd-half 2.63 below the 2.84 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.79/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.