Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2643 GP	H232 GP	H111 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	10.97	10.97	11.04	10.85	–
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	0.05	–	–
G	4	4	5	-0	–
A	8	8	10	0	–
PTS	12	11	15	-0	–
PPP	0	0	0	–	–
SOG	48	46	50	39	–
PIM	15	15	10	24	–
Hits	9	10	5	23	–
Blocks	62	59	65	41	–

Sample: 43 GP · 450 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

297Jacob Moverare-70

298Kyle Capobianco-74

299Jake Christiansen-75

300Owen Pickering-76

301Colton White-79

302Zach Metsa-83

303Jacob Bryson-85

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 65 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 10 pace in the second half after 24 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres70% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers65% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers64% match
Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames63% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zach Metsa is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 5
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM, A
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	10.97	10.97	n/a
5v5 TOI	10.94	10.49	n/a
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 7 · 22 · 10

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.97: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 10.94: same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 11.4, Q4 13.5) over the full-year 10.5
PP TOI → 0.05: same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	2.93	2.93	n/a
G/60	0.27	0.27	n/a
iSH%	9.22	9.22	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.14	n/a
iCF/60	–	7.19	n/a
iSCF/60	–	1.46	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.27	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 7 · 22 · 10

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.17 (1st half) to 0.12 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	12.89	12.89	n/a
IPP	25.08	25.08	n/a
1A/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
2A/60	0.53	0.53	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 7 · 22 · 10

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 12.9%, IPP 25.1%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 7 · 22 · 10

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Lindy Ruff) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.01	1.06	n/a
Hits/60	0.61	0.67	n/a
Blks/60	3.73	3.73	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 7 · 22 · 10

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.44/60 and 2nd-half 0.36 below the 0.67 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.61/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.73/60 (75th pct league-wide) → 3.73 projected.