Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2623 GP	H22 GP	H121 GP	Prev 346 GP · 1y
TOI	12.77	12.26	–	12.37	14.53
PP TOI	0.07	–	–	–	0.07
G	0	0	–	0	0
A	10	14	–	18	11
PTS	10	14	–	18	11
PPP	0	–	–	–	0
SOG	49	50	–	48	53
PIM	12	7	–	10	14
Hits	62	82	–	92	61
Blocks	55	57	–	66	62

Sample: 23 GP · 278 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

297Jacob Moverare-70

298Kyle Capobianco-74

299Jake Christiansen-75

300Owen Pickering-76

301Colton White-79

302Zach Metsa-83

303Jacob Bryson-85

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 52% above his 3-year rate last season (4.96 against 3.26).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 29% below last season, 14 to 10.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 5th percentile league-wide (0.11).

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers73% match
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers70% match
Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks69% match
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres68% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Colton White is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year (NJD, traded): Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.77	12.26	14.53	-16%
5v5 TOI	12.38	12.10	13.21	-8%
PP TOI	0.07	n/a	0.07

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 17 · 2 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.77: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.38: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.07: No qualifying 2025-26 — projected off the prior role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.02	3.02	2.76	+9%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
ixG/60	–	0.11	0.16	-31%
iCF/60	–	6.90	5.43	+27%
iSCF/60	–	1.29	1.78	-28%
iHDCF/60	–	0.22	0.59	-63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 17 · 2 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.95	7.56	8.53	-11%
IPP	26.10	33.51	19.80	+69%
1A/60	0.08	0.00	0.20	-100%
2A/60	0.36	0.65	0.20	+225%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 17 · 2 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 33.5% vs 19.8% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 6.90 vs 5.43) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.07	n/a	0.07
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	n/a	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	n/a	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 17 · 2 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.58	0.43	0.79	-46%
Hits/60	4.17	4.96	3.26	+52%
Blks/60	3.06	3.23	2.76	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 4 · 17 · 2 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.47/60 and 2nd-half 5.47 vs a 4.96 season rate (3.26 3-yr) (59th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.17/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.74/60 and 2nd-half 3.74 vs a 3.23 season rate (2.76 3-yr) (67th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.06/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.