Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2653 GP	H233 GP	H120 GP	Prev 3165 GP · 3y
TOI	17.67	18.18	18.62	15.95	15.31
PP TOI	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.07	0.03
G	1	1	2	-0	1
A	9	9	10	10	9
PTS	10	11	12	10	9
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	50	53	54	55	42
PIM	80	105	80	112	65
Hits	153	159	184	102	133
Blocks	135	128	127	129	122

Sample: 53 GP · 762 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

108Zayne Parekh2

109Artem Zub2

110Matt Roy2

111Vincent Desharnais1

112Max Crozier1

113Damon Severson1

114Ivan Provorov1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 184 pace in the second half after 102 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 2th percentile league-wide (0.09).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 80 pace in the second half after 112 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (2.60).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins92% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils90% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights89% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers86% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Vincent Desharnais is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year (SJS, traded): Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.67	18.18	15.31	+19%
5v5 TOI	14.66	14.38	13.18	+9%
PP TOI	0.03	0.04	0.03	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 3 · 14 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.67: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.66: same coach (Spencer Carbery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.1, Q4 16.6) over the full-year 14.4
PP TOI → 0.03: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.60	2.60	2.34	+11%
G/60	0.06	0.08	0.03	+176%
iSH%	2.16	3.08	1.24	+148%
ixG/60	–	0.09	0.08	+8%
iCF/60	–	7.79	6.87	+13%
iSCF/60	–	1.57	1.68	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	0.08	0.11	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 3 · 14 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.09 (2nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.08 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 11% (5v5 SOG/60 2.60 vs 2.34) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.14	9.38	7.09	+32%
IPP	25.17	25.00	25.43	-2%
1A/60	0.02	0.00	0.08	-100%
2A/60	0.37	0.47	0.36	+32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 3 · 14 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.4% vs a 7.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 7.79 vs 6.87) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.03	0.04	0.03	+14%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 3 · 14 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.39	4.09	3.37	+21%
Hits/60	6.98	7.32	6.46	+13%
Blks/60	4.58	4.64	4.50	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 3 · 14 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.32/60 (76th pct league-wide) → 6.98 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (89th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.58/60 projected).

TailwindStrong PIM rate (4.09/60 (90th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.