Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2656 GP	H222 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3132 GP · 2y
TOI	10.83	10.83	10.43	10.84	12.26
PP TOI	0.16	0.18	0.01	0.25	0.52
G	9	10	15	9	11
A	12	12	18	5	14
PTS	21	22	33	14	25
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	86	76	89	70	115
PIM	21	40	15	52	18
Hits	88	108	117	102	90
Blocks	39	40	30	46	50

Sample: 56 GP · 536 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

255Conor Sheary-49

256Ville Koivunen-50

257Alex Turcotte-50

258Tanner Pearson-51

259Cole Eiserman-52

260Joel Kiviranta-53

261Andrew Cristall-54

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 72% above his 3-year rate last season (12.48 against 7.26).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 52 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 40% above his 3-year rate last season (8.05 against 5.77).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders84% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues84% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs84% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tanner Pearson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year (WPG, traded): Lindy Ruff BUF · pre-trade → Scott Arniel WPG · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.83	10.83	12.26	-12%
5v5 TOI	9.56	9.58	11.11	-14%
PP TOI	0.16	0.18	0.52	-65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 18 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.83: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.56: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.16: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.38	5.37	6.79	-21%
G/60	0.51	0.67	0.49	+36%
iSH%	9.45	12.48	7.26	+72%
ixG/60	–	0.57	0.78	-27%
iCF/60	–	10.62	12.64	-16%
iSCF/60	–	5.14	6.71	-23%
iHDCF/60	–	2.12	3.28	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 18 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 12.5% vs a 7.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.57 (44th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 9.4% pulls the goal rate ~24% down.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 5.37 vs 6.79) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.47→0.71 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.91	10.13	7.44	+36%
IPP	64.17	61.09	70.15	-13%
1A/60	0.53	0.56	0.45	+24%
2A/60	0.38	0.34	0.41	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 18 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.1% vs a 7.4% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.16	0.18	0.52	-65%
PP iSH%	7.81	0.00	10.01	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.44	11.71	8.79	+33%
PP ixG/60	–	0.53	1.48	-64%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 18 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.80	2.57	1.10	+133%
Hits/60	6.78	8.05	5.77	+40%
Blks/60	2.38	2.46	3.03	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 15 · 18 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 8.05/60 (79th pct league-wide) → 6.78 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.76/60 and 2nd-half 1.76 below the 2.46 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.38/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.03 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.11/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.