Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2654 GP	H226 GP	H128 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	19.30	18.27	19.66	15.83	–
PP TOI	2.08	2.04	1.95	2.12	–
G	▼6	6	9	3	–
A	▼16	15	11	19	–
PTS	▼22	21	20	22	–
PPP	2	2	3	0	–
SOG	▼123	126	142	111	–
PIM	58	67	51	82	–
Hits	▼64	74	73	76	–
Blocks	▲110	96	109	83	–

Sample: 54 GP · 832 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

116Marcus Pettersson0

117Tyler Myers0

118Mathew Dumba0

119Sam Rinzel0

120Esa Lindell0

121Cam York-1

122Olen Zellweger-1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (lost PP-QB job to Levshunov -> fade PPP; one day could become someone like Montour) blended with 2025-26 NHL (54 GP) at w=0.50. BLK lifted 93 -> 110 on 2026-07-27: his 4.4 blocks/60 over a projected 19.3 TOI implies ~116, and blocks are a role stat that persists. Points held - his Q4 EV P60 of 0.35 says do not chase the higher outside read. Watch the camp battle with Levshunov for PP2 and the Byram pairing; we have them level (2.08 vs 2.10 PP TOI) as a deliberate hedge. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 74% above where it started (5.62 in the first half, 9.75 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 19 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 14% below last season, 74 to 64.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: PIM
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers84% match
Aaron EkbladD · Florida Panthers82% match
shared: PIM
Carter YakemchukD · Ottawa Senators82% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sam Rinzel is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year: Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	19.30	18.27	n/a
5v5 TOI	17.27	15.41	n/a
PP TOI	2.08	2.04	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 7 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.30: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 17.27: same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 17.5, Q4 17.5) over the full-year 15.4; one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 2.08: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload; FADE Rinzel's 2026-27 PP/offense expectation; Levshunov owns the PP-QB role, so cap Rinzel's PPP.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.06	4.83	n/a
G/60	0.30	0.29	n/a
iSH%	6.00	6.00	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.22	n/a
iCF/60	–	11.46	n/a
iSCF/60	–	3.17	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.14	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 7 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +8% and role +6% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	10.47	10.47	n/a
IPP	34.52	34.52	n/a
1A/60	0.36	0.36	n/a
2A/60	0.22	0.22	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 7 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskFADE Rinzel's 2026-27 PP/offense expectation; Levshunov owns the PP-QB role, so cap Rinzel's PPP.

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 34.5%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	2.08	2.04	n/a
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	8.67	7.62	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.59	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 7 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskFADE Rinzel's 2026-27 PP/offense expectation; Levshunov owns the PP-QB role, so cap Rinzel's PPP.

ContextPP role steady at ~2.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.02	2.45	n/a
Hits/60	3.11	3.24	n/a
Blks/60	4.47	4.47	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 7 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.61/60 and 2nd-half 2.05 below the 3.24 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.11/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (87th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.47/60 projected).