Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3228 GP · 3y
TOI	21.49	21.45	21.63	19.87	21.71
PP TOI	0.09	0.09	0.07	0.11	0.20
G	3	3	5	1	3
A	21	15	16	14	27
PTS	24	18	21	15	30
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	79	65	67	63	98
PIM	48	60	36	84	53
Hits	95	79	105	53	120
Blocks	147	136	145	127	150

Sample: 82 GP · 1,471 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

113Damon Severson1

114Ivan Provorov1

115Tyler Kleven1

116Marcus Pettersson0

117Tyler Myers0

118Mathew Dumba0

119Sam Rinzel0

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 105 pace in the second half after 53 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 40% above last season, 15 to 21.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 36 pace in the second half after 84 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 32% below his 3-year rate last season (2.41 against 3.52).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers88% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Jake McCabeD · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: Blocks, PIM
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals87% match
shared: Blocks
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken85% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Marcus Pettersson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year (VAN, traded): Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.49	21.45	21.71	-1%
5v5 TOI	18.46	17.94	18.45	-3%
PP TOI	0.09	0.09	0.20	-52%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.49: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.46: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.09: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.41	2.41	3.52	-32%
G/60	0.08	0.08	0.12	-31%
iSH%	3.31	3.32	3.31	+0%
ixG/60	–	0.10	0.17	-40%
iCF/60	–	6.77	9.41	-28%
iSCF/60	–	1.47	2.45	-40%
iHDCF/60	–	0.33	0.43	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.3% sits near the 3.3% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.10 (3rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 32% (5v5 SOG/60 2.41 vs 3.52) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.08→0.12 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.24	8.86	9.71	-9%
IPP	33.19	31.77	34.93	-9%
1A/60	0.27	0.12	0.47	-75%
2A/60	0.46	0.41	0.50	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.9%, IPP 31.8%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.09	0.09	0.20	-52%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	6.52	7.79	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.93	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.57	2.04	1.87	+9%
Hits/60	3.48	2.94	4.20	-30%
Blks/60	4.35	4.16	4.62	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.21/60 and 2nd-half 3.76 vs a 2.94 season rate (4.20 3-yr) (38th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.48/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.16/60 (84th pct league-wide) → 4.35 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.