Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H235 GP	H135 GP	Prev 379 GP · 1y
TOI	17.27	17.35	16.99	16.90	14.47
PP TOI	0.17	0.12	0.14	0.11	0.12
G	5	4	7	0	4
A	13	18	21	14	6
PTS	18	21	28	14	10
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	108	106	109	102	81
PIM	46	62	91	33	28
Hits	143	148	179	116	108
Blocks	113	111	97	125	101

Sample: 70 GP · 1,068 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

112Max Crozier1

113Damon Severson1

114Ivan Provorov1

115Tyler Kleven1

116Marcus Pettersson0

117Tyler Myers0

118Mathew Dumba0

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 91 pace in the second half after 33 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 61% above where it started (0.49 in the first half, 0.79 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 32% below his 3-year rate last season (3.79 against 5.53).

We project it down

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 14% below last season, 21 to 18.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devils83% match
shared: Hits
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins83% match
shared: Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knights82% match
shared: Hits
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth81% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tyler Kleven is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Travis Green (OTT)

Last year: Travis Green full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.27	17.35	14.47	+20%
5v5 TOI	15.88	15.27	13.93	+10%
PP TOI	0.17	0.12	0.12	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 22 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.27: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.88: same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.7, Q4 17.1) over the full-year 15.3
PP TOI → 0.17: same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.49	4.49	3.98	+13%
G/60	0.21	0.17	0.22	-23%
iSH%	4.66	3.79	5.53	-32%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.13	+15%
iCF/60	–	10.22	9.76	+5%
iSCF/60	–	2.36	2.18	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	0.22	0.16	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 22 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 3.8% vs 5.5% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 4.7%, lifting the goal rate ~23%.

TailwindShot volume up 13% (5v5 SOG/60 4.49 vs 3.98) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.14→0.17 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.37	8.62	7.23	+19%
IPP	36.85	38.14	31.01	+23%
1A/60	0.43	0.62	0.16	+288%
2A/60	0.11	0.11	0.11	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 22 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 8.6% (3-yr 7.2%) AND IPP 38.1% (3-yr 31.0%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~3%.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.22 vs 0.16) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.17	0.12	0.12	+5%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	26.14	21.14	26.23	-19%
PP ixG/60	–	1.10	1.82	-40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 22 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Travis Green) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.24	2.86	1.47	+95%
Hits/60	6.32	6.79	5.62	+21%
Blks/60	4.33	4.49	5.07	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 17 · 22 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.79/60 (74th pct league-wide) → 6.32 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.24/60 and 2nd-half 3.73 below the 4.49 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.33/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.07 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.17/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.