Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2674 GP	H241 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3202 GP · 3y
TOI	22.37	22.54	21.29	21.77	21.22
PP TOI	1.34	1.66	1.55	1.80	1.36
G	6	4	4	5	6
A	21	24	15	36	21
PTS	27	29	19	40	27
PPP	4	8	2	15	4
SOG	95	99	100	96	98
PIM	34	31	30	32	36
Hits	36	26	38	12	73
Blocks	156	161	162	159	146

Sample: 74 GP · 1,264 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

118Mathew Dumba0

119Sam Rinzel0

120Esa Lindell0

121Cam York-1

122Olen Zellweger-1

123Rasmus Sandin-2

124Adam Pelech-2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 50% below last season, 8 to 4.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 36 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 40 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 62% below his 3-year rate last season (1.04 against 2.76).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Travis SanheimD · Philadelphia Flyers87% match
shared: Blocks
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: Blocks
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers84% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers82% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Cam York is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.37	22.54	21.22	+6%
5v5 TOI	17.14	17.09	17.30	-1%
PP TOI	1.34	1.66	1.36	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 17 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.37: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.14: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.34: role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 1.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.51	2.51	3.18	-21%
G/60	0.16	0.14	0.21	-32%
iSH%	6.22	5.58	6.49	-14%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.22	-8%
iCF/60	–	6.50	8.15	-20%
iSCF/60	–	2.80	2.89	-3%
iHDCF/60	–	1.00	0.84	+19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 17 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.6% sits near the 6.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (22nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 2.51 vs 3.18) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.18→0.22 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.10	11.00	8.33	+32%
IPP	30.98	30.28	33.04	-8%
1A/60	0.24	0.28	0.22	+25%
2A/60	0.34	0.33	0.34	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 17 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.0% vs a 8.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 1.00 vs 0.84) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.34	1.66	1.36	+22%
PP iSH%	1.92	4.36	0.00
PP SOG/60	8.53	11.25	7.62	+48%
PP ixG/60	–	1.10	0.61	+79%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 17 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.7→1.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 1.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.10 vs 0.61) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.21	1.14	1.37	-17%
Hits/60	1.40	1.04	2.76	-62%
Blks/60	4.73	4.89	4.50	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 17 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.01/60 and 2nd-half 1.57 vs a 1.04 season rate (2.76 3-yr) (7th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.40/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindElite blocks volume (91st pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.73/60 projected).