Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2676 GP	H236 GP	H140 GP	Prev 388 GP · 2y
TOI	18.00	16.98	14.70	17.66	19.05
PP TOI	1.60	0.76	0.11	1.35	2.22
G	8	8	6	9	8
A	▲24	16	13	20	19
PTS	▲32	24	18	29	27
PPP	▲9	3	0	6	7
SOG	135	128	120	136	153
PIM	27	37	25	48	22
Hits	37	35	23	46	48
Blocks	97	92	88	95	103

Sample: 76 GP · 1,109 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

119Sam Rinzel0

120Esa Lindell0

121Cam York-1

122Olen Zellweger-1

123Rasmus Sandin-2

124Adam Pelech-2

125Yan Kuznetsov-2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): TOI set to 18.0. Blocks and shots were each ~12-20 short of the outside read; rather than patch both counts, the minutes assumption behind them was corrected and the rates left alone. Stop negatively regressing a 22yo D: TOI ~18.5, PPTOI ~1.6, ~30 pts / ~9 PPP. Shares a 2-D PP2 with Power (both trimmed from 2.0 — two D can't each own the PP2 minutes).

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindRaise 5v5 floors for Anaheim's young core; minutes must be earned defensively. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 66% below his 3-year rate last season (0.76 against 2.22).

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 50% above last season, 16 to 24.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 63% below where it started (7.88 in the first half, 2.88 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 62% below where it started (0.48 in the first half, 0.18 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers84% match
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: G
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers80% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Olen Zellweger is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year (ANA, traded): Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.00	16.98	19.05	-11%
5v5 TOI	13.50	14.60	15.85	-8%
PP TOI	1.60	0.76	2.22	-66%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 14

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.00: The whole disagreement on his blocks and shots was one input, not two output errors: we implied ~17 minutes, both outside reads imply ~19. His RATES are not in dispute. Setting the minutes once and letting the counts fall out is the honest version of that bet. 18.0 splits our sheltered-D3 read against their 19 — one source calls his defence the problem and expects him sheltered, the other has him competing with Power for time, and Buffalo did lose Byram and Kesselring off the blue line.
5v5 TOI → 13.50: role tapered late (Q4 11.9 vs 14.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 1.60: runs a 3F-2D PP2 alongside Power (both on the ice), behind Dahlin's PP1. 2024-25 had 2.41 PP TOI; 2025-26 cut to 0.76. Bet the role grows for a 22yo, but ~1.6 (hedged from 2.0) since he shares the second unit with Power.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.74	5.57	5.25	+6%
G/60	0.28	0.27	0.26	+4%
iSH%	4.89	4.85	4.94	-2%
ixG/60	–	0.40	0.27	+48%
iCF/60	–	14.44	13.12	+10%
iSCF/60	–	4.60	3.53	+30%
iHDCF/60	–	1.08	0.52	+109%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 14

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.40 (35th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.27 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.63	9.99	8.00	+25%
IPP	30.92	30.36	34.50	-12%
1A/60	0.35	0.38	0.30	+26%
2A/60	0.23	0.27	0.22	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 14

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.0% vs a 8.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 14.44 vs 13.12) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 1.08 vs 0.52) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.60	0.76	2.22	-66%
PP iSH%	6.44	16.64	3.21	+418%
PP SOG/60	2.85	6.19	9.52	-35%
PP ixG/60	–	0.40	0.75	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 14

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.8→1.6 PP TOI/gp (runs a 3F-2D PP2 alongside Power (both on the ice), behind Dahlin's PP1. 2024-25 had 2.41 PP TOI; 2025-26 cut to 0.76. Bet the role grows for a 22yo, but ~1.6 (hedged from 2.0) since he shares the second unit with Power.) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (16.6% vs 3.2% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.40) — point-shot D and pass-first QBs regress hardest.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.09	1.51	0.86	+76%
Hits/60	1.39	1.41	2.06	-32%
Blks/60	4.09	4.06	4.13	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 14

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.08/60 and 2nd-half 0.91 below the 1.41 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.39/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.06 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.06/60 (82nd pct league-wide) → 4.09 projected.