Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3179 GP · 3y
TOI	20.92	20.89	20.56	19.53	21.03
PP TOI	0.18	0.15	0.16	0.14	0.13
G	3	4	1	7	3
A	20	12	18	6	23
PTS	23	16	19	13	27
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	126	122	120	124	127
PIM	53	50	63	37	44
Hits	74	66	80	53	98
Blocks	113	125	109	140	136

Sample: 82 GP · 1,424 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

121Cam York-1

122Olen Zellweger-1

123Rasmus Sandin-2

124Adam Pelech-2

125Yan Kuznetsov-2

126Jake Middleton-2

127Dennis Gilbert-3

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 67% above last season, 12 to 20.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 63 pace in the second half after 37 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 80 pace in the second half after 53 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken88% match
shared: Blocks
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals85% match
shared: Blocks
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers83% match
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers81% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adam Pelech is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.92	20.89	21.03	-1%
5v5 TOI	17.64	17.37	17.73	-2%
PP TOI	0.18	0.15	0.13	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.92: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.64: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.18: same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.69	4.84	4.82	+0%
G/60	0.11	0.13	0.09	+38%
iSH%	2.32	2.69	1.95	+38%
ixG/60	–	0.25	0.23	+11%
iCF/60	–	12.85	12.50	+3%
iSCF/60	–	3.03	3.23	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	0.42	0.55	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.25 (29th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.23 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.30 (1st half) to 0.22 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.51	7.10	8.01	-11%
IPP	31.07	27.78	36.45	-24%
1A/60	0.27	0.25	0.34	-27%
2A/60	0.41	0.17	0.43	-61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 27.8% sits below the 36.4% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.18	0.15	0.13	+17%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.34	0.00	2.61	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.05	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.26	2.02	1.69	+20%
Hits/60	2.91	2.61	3.67	-29%
Blks/60	3.57	4.13	3.97	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.19/60 and 2nd-half 3.12 vs a 2.61 season rate (3.67 3-yr) (32nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.91/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.06/60 and 2nd-half 3.24 below the 4.13 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.57/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.97 3-yr mark.