Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H240 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	17.93	16.76	16.99	15.28	–
PP TOI	0.36	0.31	0.30	0.32	–
G	1	1	-0	2	–
A	17	15	20	9	–
PTS	18	16	20	11	–
PPP	0	0	0	0	–
SOG	96	82	85	78	–
PIM	26	25	29	20	–
Hits	92	84	97	68	–
Blocks	85	79	88	67	–

Sample: 72 GP · 1,080 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

223Henry Thrun-34

224Dmitri Simashev-34

225Brett Kulak-34

226Sam Dickinson-35

227Haydn Fleury-35

228Jacob Bernard-Docker-35

229Scott Morrow-36

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 97 pace in the second half after 68 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 72% above where it started (0.82 in the first half, 1.41 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 13% above last season, 15 to 17.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers78% match
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers75% match
Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks73% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers72% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sam Dickinson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	17.93	16.76	n/a
5v5 TOI	16.82	15.00	n/a
PP TOI	0.36	0.31	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 19 · 21

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.93: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 16.82: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 15.7, Q4 16.6) over the full-year 15.0; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.36: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.3, Q4 0.4) over the full-year 0.3; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	3.89	3.78	n/a
G/60	0.06	0.06	n/a
iSH%	1.59	1.59	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.22	n/a
iCF/60	–	10.67	n/a
iSCF/60	–	2.78	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.61	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 19 · 21

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 20 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 20 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	11.02	11.02	n/a
IPP	21.94	21.94	n/a
1A/60	0.22	0.22	n/a
2A/60	0.33	0.33	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 19 · 21

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.0%, IPP 21.9%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.36	0.31	n/a
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	2.82	2.70	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.53	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 19 · 21

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.3→0.4 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.3, Q4 0.4) over the full-year 0.3; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.11	1.11	n/a
Hits/60	3.84	3.78	n/a
Blks/60	3.56	3.56	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 19 · 21

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.13/60 and 2nd-half 4.20 vs a 3.78 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (47th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.84/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.56/60 (72nd pct league-wide) → 3.56 projected.