Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2638 GP	H222 GP	H116 GP	Prev 392 GP · 3y
TOI	14.17	13.93	13.62	13.62	14.99
PP TOI	0.18	0.18	0.27	0.06	0.06
G	1	4	8	0	1
A	9	4	6	2	11
PTS	10	9	14	2	12
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	76	56	62	50	86
PIM	30	26	22	33	36
Hits	99	116	118	116	97
Blocks	112	121	112	141	117

Sample: 38 GP · 457 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

224Dmitri Simashev-34

225Brett Kulak-34

226Sam Dickinson-35

227Haydn Fleury-35

228Jacob Bernard-Docker-35

229Scott Morrow-36

230Maxim Strbak-37

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 35% below his 3-year rate last season (2.88 against 4.44).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 37% above his 3-year rate last season (6.68 against 4.86).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 33 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers84% match
shared: Hits
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers82% match
shared: Hits
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals79% match
shared: Hits
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals78% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Haydn Fleury is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.17	13.93	14.99	-7%
5v5 TOI	12.39	12.05	13.54	-11%
PP TOI	0.18	0.18	0.06	+208%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 1 · 5 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.17: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.39: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.18: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.92	2.88	4.44	-35%
G/60	0.19	0.26	0.05	+438%
iSH%	3.47	9.03	1.09	+728%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.21	-29%
iCF/60	–	8.26	11.04	-25%
iSCF/60	–	1.70	2.94	-42%
iHDCF/60	–	0.26	0.44	-40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 1 · 5 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 9.0% vs a 1.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 3.5% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 35% (5v5 SOG/60 2.88 vs 4.44) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.31	7.23	7.42	-3%
IPP	30.51	27.08	36.11	-25%
1A/60	0.15	0.00	0.29	-100%
2A/60	0.25	0.13	0.29	-55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 1 · 5 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 27.1% sits below the 36.1% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.18	0.18	0.06	+208%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	9.58	8.72	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	3.43	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 1 · 5 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.66	1.57	1.93	-18%
Hits/60	5.92	6.68	4.86	+37%
Blks/60	5.52	5.77	5.30	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 1 · 5 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.68/60 (73rd pct league-wide) → 5.92 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 5.45/60 and 2nd-half 5.01 below the 5.77 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.52/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.30 3-yr mark.